SAT 22:30 ET|CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
45
9-5
58
86
15
18%
57
73
29.0
-175
-3.5
HOME
21
7-6
74
43
66
23%
83
53
25.5
+145
+3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALDUKE45—CAL21
CLOSED DUKE -3.5TOTAL 54.5DUKE COVERED · 66 POINTS · OVER
DUKE
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
CAL
DUKE
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CAL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 6 FIELD n=50
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADDUKE -3.5
IMPLIED — DUKE29.0
IMPLIED — CAL25.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
66FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT19 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 19 positions on a 50-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
DUKERECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
DUKE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CALRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.7
CALIFORNIA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERDUKECALIFORNIA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB90%Maalik MurphyPORTAL · OREGON STATE · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB72%Ozzie NicholasLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron BergeronLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex HowardLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB64%Star ThomasPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 62% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE59%Eli PancolWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan MooreWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNicky DalmolinTE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB39%Jaylen StinsonS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoshua PickettCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL39%Kendy CharlesDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael ReeseDE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan SmithDE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL21%Caleb KringsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDarian Mensah · PORTAL ★4 · TULANEDan Mahan · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBElliott Schaper · SIGNEE ★3Asher Wasserman · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBNate Sheppard · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEAndrel Anthony · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMACooper Barkate · PORTAL ★3 · HARVARDJaivon Solomon · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBCaleb Weaver · PORTAL ★3 · SAM HOUSTONKolbe Harmon · SIGNEE ★3Kaleb Lanier · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLBryce Davis · SIGNEE ★4Bariate Kara · SIGNEE ★4Sampson Onuoha · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJamin Brown · SIGNEE ★3Cole Allen · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · DUKE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.369 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
49.266 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.573 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB595998152 OF 5 GRADED
RB5555681665 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE626268631711 OF 17 GRADED
OL505052771911 OF 19 GRADED
DL666664781818 OF 18 GRADED
LB535355661210 OF 12 GRADED
DB484867671813 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE58th58
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%44
RECRUITING CLASS#30 · 4/28 BC78
CLASS RANK TREND+26 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 9 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CALJUSTIN WILCOX9TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
DUKEMANNY DIAZ2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESDUKE OFFENSECAL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBDUKE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECALIFORNIA DEFENSE DUKE QUARTERBACKSn=599% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS62% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLDUKE OFFENSEFRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE DUKE OFFENSIVE LINEn=1923% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS48% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBDUKE OFFENSEFRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE DUKE RUNNING BACKSn=684% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS49% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553063%27%LINEBACKERSLB
0.453836%13%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEDUKE OFFENSESECONDARYCALIFORNIA DEFENSE DUKE PASS CATCHERSn=1737% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM73% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−10
+33
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.0%
50.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.4%
84.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.1%
1.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = DUKE, ORANGE = CAL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE