SAT 15:30 ET|COTTON BOWLCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U44.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
6
10-3
91
35
100
53%
43
99
21.0
+120
+2.5
HOME
23
10-3
98
62
81
28%
25
90
23.5
-142
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALOU6—TEX23
CLOSED TEX -2.5TOTAL 44.5TEX COVERED · 29 POINTS · UNDER
OU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TEX
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 7 FIELD n=56
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADTEX -2.5
IMPLIED — OU21.0
IMPLIED — TEX23.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
28FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 56-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
OURECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.8-2.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.5
OKLAHOMA won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEXRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.8
TEXAS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROKLAHOMATEXAS2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB67%Jackson ArnoldPORTAL · AUBURN · 67% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE60%Bauer SharpPORTAL · LSU · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrenen ThompsonPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake RobertsTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB48%Billy Bowman Jr.DRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKani WalkerPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDez MaloneDB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB47%Danny StutsmanDRAFTED · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDasan McCulloughPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLewis CarterPORTAL · UCF · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL42%Ethan DownsDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrace FordDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDa'Jon TerryDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL29%Michael TarquinOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSpencer BrownOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB27%Gavin SawchukPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam FranklinPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJohn Mateer · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTON STATEREFILLED
WR/TEJer'Michael Carter · PORTAL ★3 · MCNEESEJavonnie Gibson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFFIsaiah Sategna · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBTrystan Haynes · SIGNEE ★4Omarion Robinson · SIGNEE ★4Marcus Wimberly · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBKendal Daniels · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMA STATEMarcus James · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLMarvin Jones Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDA STATETrent Wilson · SIGNEE ★4CJ Nickson · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLDerek Simmons · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINAMichael Fasusi · SIGNEE ★5Ryan Fodje · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBJaydn Ott · PORTAL ★4 · CALIFORNIATory Blaylock · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OKLAHOMA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
58.689 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
64.891 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.679 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB535397743 OF 4 GRADED
RB3939844476 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE707088482518 OF 25 GRADED
OL626279441813 OF 18 GRADED
DL888891862014 OF 20 GRADED
LB92929275108 OF 10 GRADED
DB575789771915 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE91st91
BLUE-CHIP RATIO60%92
RECRUITING CLASS#17 · 12/18 BC88
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 20 IN / 34 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OUBRENT VENABLES4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2727
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOU OFFENSETEX OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOKLAHOMA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETEXAS DEFENSE OU QUARTERBACKSn=493% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOKLAHOMA OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE OU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1856% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS43% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOKLAHOMA OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE OU RUNNING BACKSn=756% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS41% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556736%69%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457988%55%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOKLAHOMA OFFENSESECONDARYTEXAS DEFENSE OU PASS CATCHERSn=2552% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM22% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾0
+10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.1%
55.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.7%
69.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
1.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OU, ORANGE = TEX) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE