SAT 15:30 ET|KIDD BREWER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U48.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
45
6-7
42
32
23
97%
34
39
19.0
+310
+10.5
HOME
37
5-8
43
21
15
14%
85
45
29.5
-395
-10.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALCCU45—APP37
CLOSED APP -10.5TOTAL 48.5CCU COVERED · 82 POINTS · OVER
CCU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
APP
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=59
MARKET
TOTAL48.5
SPREADAPP -10.5
IMPLIED — CCU19.0
IMPLIED — APP29.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
60FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT26 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 26 positions on a 59-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
CCURECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs3.4-8.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
COASTAL CAROLINA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
APPRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
APP STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCOASTAL CAROLINAAPP STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB97%Braydon BennettPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian WashingtonPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSimeon PricePORTAL · COLORADO · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB92%Ethan VaskoPORTAL · LIBERTY · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah KimPORTAL · EASTERN MICHIGAN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB82%Tobias FletcherS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJuan PowellDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCourtney EubanksDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL75%Clev LubinPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeamontae DiggsPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin RansawPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE41%Kendall KarrTE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSenika McKieWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTray TaylorPORTAL · TROY · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB32%Barry BrownLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraylon RyanLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL29%Donavan MansonPORTAL · UNLV · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZovon LindsayOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBDominic Knicely · SIGNEE ★3Jevon Edwards · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBEmmett Brown · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEMJ Morris · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDREFILLED
DBJacob Robinson · PORTAL ★3 · EMORY & HENRY COLLEGERobby Washington · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIChris Henry · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLEric Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · SMUDarrion Henry-Young · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYObinna Onwuka · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TETrishstin Glass · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTKarmello English · PORTAL ★3 · WEST GEORGIAColton Hinton · PORTAL ★3 · FURMAN5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBLuke Murphy · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN MICHIGANNate Gregory · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLDesmond Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINADominic Rijos · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · COASTAL CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.337 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
43.557 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.829 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5454476563 OF 6 GRADED
RB3333444175 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE545440621914 OF 19 GRADED
OL535340811914 OF 19 GRADED
DL474729381610 OF 16 GRADED
LB494932611211 OF 12 GRADED
DB565644442418 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE42nd42
BLUE-CHIP RATIO13%59
RECRUITING CLASS#91 · 0/12 BC32
CLASS RANK TREND+23 · 3 CYCLES96
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 30 IN / 49 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
APPDOWELL LOGGAINSFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9393
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7575
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CCUTIM BECK3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2424
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3838
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCCU OFFENSEAPP OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEAPP STATE DEFENSE CCU QUARTERBACKSn=635% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7APP STATE DEFENSE CCU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1919% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS58% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7APP STATE DEFENSE CCU RUNNING BACKSn=759% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS56% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555028%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSESECONDARYAPP STATE DEFENSE CCU PASS CATCHERSn=1938% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
APP SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM34% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+31
+23
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
APP
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.8%
50.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.7%
76.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.5%
1.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CCU, ORANGE = APP) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE