SAT 15:30 ET|SCHEUMANN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/U44.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
28
5-7
25
7
19
37%
77
1
23.5
-125
-2.5
HOME
42
4-8
17
1
24
8%
4
13
21.0
+105
+2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALAKR28—BALL42
CLOSED AKR -2.5TOTAL 44.5BALL COVERED · 70 POINTS · OVER
AKR
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
BALL
AKR
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BALL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=59
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADAKR -2.5
IMPLIED — AKR23.5
IMPLIED — BALL21.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
34FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 59-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
AKRRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.2
AKRON won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BALLRECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.2-9.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.0
BALL STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAKRONBALL STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB98%Jordon SimmonsPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE · 55% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCharles KellomPORTAL · EASTERN ILLINOIS · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL78%CJ Nunnally IVPORTAL · PURDUE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBennett AdlerDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNathan KapongoDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB77%Bryan McCoy Jr.PORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntavious FishPORTAL · SAM HOUSTON · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB67%Darrian LewisPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPaul Lewis IIIDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevonte Golden-NelsonPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE52%Adrian NortonPORTAL · MARSHALL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBobby GoldenWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAhmarian GrangerWR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL49%Tyhler WilliamsPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayvin JamesPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDa'Quan ThomasOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB7%Tahj BullockPORTAL · COLORADO STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJordan Gant · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEE STATETaven Curry · PORTAL ★3 · UL MONROEREFILLED
DLCyrus Durham · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAVann Kavals · SIGNEE ★3Ty Watkins · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBDevin Reeves · SIGNEE ★3Gavin James · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBDJ Stepney · PORTAL ★3 · MARSHALLMehki Flowers · PORTAL ★4 · PENN STATETairan Davis Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TECameron Monteiro · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHTim Grear Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · FRESNO STATEBrandon Hills Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJayme Simmons · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH ALABAMAAmarie Archer · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINADarrell Johnson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKY4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBMichael Johnson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSECibastian Broughton · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · AKRON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.831 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
49.467 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
25.118 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3333189353 OF 5 GRADED
RB272736666 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE353535571814 OF 18 GRADED
OL272739271916 OF 19 GRADED
DL535326501916 OF 19 GRADED
LB47475587108 OF 10 GRADED
DB383843641817 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE25th25
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%46
RECRUITING CLASS#128 · 0/11 BC5
CLASS RANK TREND-19 · 3 CYCLES12
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 17 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BALLMIKE UREMOVICHFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
66
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
AKRJOE MOORHEAD4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9090
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1919
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAKR OFFENSEBALL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAKRON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBALL STATE DEFENSE AKR QUARTERBACKSn=57% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS59% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAKRON OFFENSEFRONT-7BALL STATE DEFENSE AKR OFFENSIVE LINEn=1973% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS41% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAKRON OFFENSEFRONT-7BALL STATE DEFENSE AKR RUNNING BACKSn=694% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS42% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554662%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAKRON OFFENSESECONDARYBALL STATE DEFENSE AKR PASS CATCHERSn=1843% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BALL SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM73% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BALL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+10
+13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BALL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BALL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.3%
63.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS71.5%
58.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.2%
1.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = AKR, ORANGE = BALL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE