SAT 21:45 ET|UNIVERSITY STADIUM (NM)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U49.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
22
3-9
14
15
33
66%
2
30
17.8
+410
+14.0
HOME
24
9-4
5
41
39
13%
24
41
31.8
-550
-14.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALNEV22—UNM24
CLOSED UNM -14.0TOTAL 49.5NEV COVERED · 46 POINTS · UNDER
NEV
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UNM
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=59
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADUNM -14.0
IMPLIED — NEV17.8
IMPLIED — UNM31.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
42FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 59-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
NEVRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.9
NEVADA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNMRECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.4
NEW MEXICO won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEVADANEW MEXICO2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB99%Michael Coats Jr.PORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKitan CrawfordDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChad BrownDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB87%Brendon LewisPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 87% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB81%Savion RedPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPatrick Garwo IIIRB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSean DollarsRB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL66%Isaiah WorldPORTAL · OREGON · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSpencer LovellOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyson RuffinsPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE65%Jaden SmithWR · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCortez Braham Jr.PORTAL · MEMPHIS · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew SavaiinaeaTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL58%Henry IkahihifoDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKris RossPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMackavelli MalotumauPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB44%Tongiaki MateialonaLB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBHayden McDonald · PORTAL ★3 · COLUMBIADJ Warnell Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASAiden Walker · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBCarter Jones · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBHerschel Turner · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATECarter Jackson · SIGNEE ★3Dominic Kelley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTrenton Scott · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEZach Cochnauer · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL ARKANSASJackson Ramsey · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEJordan Brown · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHDJ Asiasi · SIGNEE ★3Mack Kump · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLSam Cook · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATEKameron Brown · SIGNEE ★3Keegan Perea · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBNahji Logan · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANANakian Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEJake Silverman · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEVADA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
28.718 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
39.646 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
22.712 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3232644753 OF 5 GRADED
RB5151426797 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE383830512115 OF 21 GRADED
OL555545481810 OF 18 GRADED
DL404049842216 OF 22 GRADED
LB37372544118 OF 11 GRADED
DB484833171717 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE14th14
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%6
RECRUITING CLASS#88 · 0/29 BC35
CLASS RANK TREND+19 · 3 CYCLES88
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 20 IN / 31 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNMJASON ECKFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4040
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9595
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NEVJEFF CHOATE2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1212
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNEV OFFENSEUNM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEVADA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENEW MEXICO DEFENSE NEV QUARTERBACKSn=553% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS87% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEVADA OFFENSEFRONT-7NEW MEXICO DEFENSE NEV OFFENSIVE LINEn=1852% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS84% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEVADA OFFENSEFRONT-7NEW MEXICO DEFENSE NEV RUNNING BACKSn=933% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS86% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556626%4%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEVADA OFFENSESECONDARYNEW MEXICO DEFENSE NEV PASS CATCHERSn=2149% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM89% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNM
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−2
−43
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNM
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NEV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNM
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS61.8%
59.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.7%
60.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.9%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NEV, ORANGE = UNM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE