THU 19:30 ET|ALAMODOMECONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
26
11-3
51
31
36
15%
53
40
30.0
-225
-5.5
HOME
48
7-6
53
61
28
96%
54
50
24.5
+190
+5.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALTULN26—UTSA48
CLOSED TULN -5.5TOTAL 54.5UTSA COVERED · 74 POINTS · OVER
TULN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UTSA
TULN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UTSA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADTULN -5.5
IMPLIED — TULN30.0
IMPLIED — UTSA24.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
TULNRECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs8.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.5
TULANE won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UTSARECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.2
UTSA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTULANEUTSA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Darian MensahPORTAL · DUKE · 100% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE80%Alex BaumanPORTAL · MIAMI · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReggie BrownTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMario WilliamsWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB75%Makhi HughesPORTAL · OREGON · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey CornistPORTAL · CENTRAL MICHIGAN · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL73%Patrick JenkinsDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdin HuntingtonDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatthew Fobbs-WhitePORTAL · BAYLOR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB63%Micah RobinsonDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb RansawDRAFTED · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRayshawn PleasantPORTAL · AUBURN · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL59%Vincent MurphyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRashad GreenOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh RemetichOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB46%Tyler GrubbsLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrell AllenLB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavon CarterLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrendan Sullivan · PORTAL ★3 · IOWAKadin Semonza · PORTAL ★3 · BALL STATECade Scott · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEJohnny Pascuzzi · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAAntwaun Parham · SIGNEE ★3Cameron Roberts · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBMaurice Turner · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEJavin Gordon · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLSantana Hopper · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATETrevon McAlpine · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHMo Westmoreland · PORTAL ★3 · UTEP4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBLJ Green · PORTAL ★3 · TROYIsaiah Wadsworth · PORTAL ★3 · WOFFORDMichael Igbinoghene · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMitch Hodnett · PORTAL ★3 · TCUJuelz Baptiste · SIGNEE ★3Gresham Perry · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TULANE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.329 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
25.518 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
37.943 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB545488082 OF 8 GRADED
RB4747543465 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE626258412415 OF 24 GRADED
OL565641652112 OF 21 GRADED
DL505055251614 OF 16 GRADED
LB545453701310 OF 13 GRADED
DB404046662114 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE51st51
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%36
RECRUITING CLASS#74 · 0/20 BC45
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 30 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UTSAJEFF TRAYLOR6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5858
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TULNJON SUMRALL2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 3 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7474
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTULN OFFENSEUTSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTULANE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUTSA DEFENSE TULN QUARTERBACKSn=8100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS35% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTULANE OFFENSEFRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE TULN OFFENSIVE LINEn=2135% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMS41% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTULANE OFFENSEFRONT-7UTSA DEFENSE TULN RUNNING BACKSn=666% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERS42% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554761%11%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454455%16%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETULANE OFFENSESECONDARYUTSA DEFENSE TULN PASS CATCHERSn=2459% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UTSA SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM31% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−17
−2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UTSA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.0%
53.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS53.3%
65.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
1.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TULN, ORANGE = UTSA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE