SAT 15:30 ET|ALUMNI STADIUM (CHESTNUT HILL, MA)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP44|O/U55.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
25
10-2
94
87
88
37%
18
38
43.5
-6500
-31.5
HOME
10
2-10
50
59
35
62%
82
61
12.0
+2000
+31.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALND25—BC10
CLOSED ND -31.5TOTAL 55.5BC COVERED · 35 POINTS · UNDER
ND
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BC
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL55.5
SPREADND -31.5
IMPLIED — ND43.5
IMPLIED — BC12.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
61FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
NDRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.6-1.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+24.4
NOTRE DAME won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BCRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.3-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
BOSTON COLLEGE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNOTRE DAMEBOSTON COLLEGE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Riley LeonardDRAFTED · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSteve AngeliPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE54%Mitchell EvansDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBeaux CollinsWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKris MitchellWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB50%Xavier WattsDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan ClarkS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRod Heard IIS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL41%Pat CooganPORTAL · INDIANA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRocco SpindlerPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam PendletonPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL38%Howard Cross IIIDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRylie MillsDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONR.J. ObenDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB26%Jack KiserDRAFTED · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB5%Devyn FordRB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBlake Hebert · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEMalachi Fields · PORTAL ★4 · VIRGINIAJames Flanigan · SIGNEE ★4Elijah Burress · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
DBDeVonta Smith · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAJaDon Blair · SIGNEE ★4Mark Zackery IV · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLWill Black · SIGNEE ★5Owen Strebig · SIGNEE ★4Cam Herron · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLChristopher Burgess Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Joe Reiff · SIGNEE ★3Dominik Hulak · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBMadden Faraimo · SIGNEE ★4Anthony Sacca · SIGNEE ★4Ko'o Kia · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBNolan James Jr. · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NOTRE DAME
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.175 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.351 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
59.688 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB626297842 OF 4 GRADED
RB7777949585 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE818181572519 OF 25 GRADED
OL636391951813 OF 18 GRADED
DL707081792119 OF 21 GRADED
LB626296931210 OF 12 GRADED
DB636388682016 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE94th94
BLUE-CHIP RATIO62%94
RECRUITING CLASS#12 · 15/25 BC92
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 8 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BCBILL O'BRIEN2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NDMARCUS FREEMAN4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6666
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESND OFFENSEBC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNOTRE DAME OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE ND QUARTERBACKSn=492% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNOTRE DAME OFFENSEFRONT-7BOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE ND OFFENSIVE LINEn=185% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC FRONT-7n=36 · 2 ROOMS36% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNOTRE DAME OFFENSEFRONT-7BOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE ND RUNNING BACKSn=85% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 36 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553857%5%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENOTRE DAME OFFENSESECONDARYBOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE ND PASS CATCHERSn=2543% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM22% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−3
+21
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS61.7%
50.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.7%
79.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.9%
2.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ND, ORANGE = BC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE