SAT 15:30 ET|HANCOCK WHITNEY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
31
6-7
34
24
7
57%
15
14
24.5
+150
+3.5
HOME
22
4-8
26
38
13
25%
86
17
28.0
-180
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUL31—USA22
CLOSED USA -3.5TOTAL 52.5UL COVERED · 53 POINTS · OVER
UL
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
USA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADUSA -3.5
IMPLIED — UL24.5
IMPLIED — USA28.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
66FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT19 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 19 positions on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
ULRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.3-6.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.9
LOUISIANA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USARECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.9
SOUTH ALABAMA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLOUISIANASOUTH ALABAMA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB92%Ben WooldridgeQB · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChandler FieldsQB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE70%Terrance Carter Jr.PORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHarvey Broussard IIIPORTAL · HOUSTON · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLance LeGendreWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB67%Tyrone Lewis Jr.S · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeyon MartinCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin AguPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB50%K.C. OssaiLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarmycah GlassPORTAL · HOUSTON · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL47%Landon BurtonOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAJ GillieOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKing McGowenOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL39%Mason NarcisseDL · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyron MimsDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB31%Dre WashingtonPORTAL · ALABAMA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChaz WardRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBWalker Howard · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSColeman Carter · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEShelton Sampson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · LSUBrock Chappell · PORTAL ★3 · FURMANTrey Miller · PORTAL ★3 · WAYNE STATE6 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBTrae Tomlinson · PORTAL ★3 · RICHMONDJayden Glosten · SIGNEE ★3Cam Riley · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLKorbin Ashmore · SIGNEE ★3Jakoby Isom · SIGNEE ★3Jayden McAllister · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLChase Howard · SIGNEE ★3AJ Spencer · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBDarrell Smith · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LOUISIANA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.252 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.942 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
44.956 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5151378853 OF 5 GRADED
RB2828429064 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE383828472214 OF 22 GRADED
OL313149881813 OF 18 GRADED
DL333341831411 OF 14 GRADED
LB25255499149 OF 14 GRADED
DB363635662213 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE34th34
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%21
RECRUITING CLASS#81 · 0/20 BC40
CLASS RANK TREND+8 · 3 CYCLES66
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 5 IN / 12 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USAMAJOR APPLEWHITE2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1717
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8282
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ULMICHAEL DESORMEAUX4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3737
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5151
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUL OFFENSEUSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLOUISIANA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTH ALABAMA DEFENSE UL QUARTERBACKSn=512% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS41% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLOUISIANA OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH ALABAMA DEFENSE UL OFFENSIVE LINEn=1812% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USA FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS40% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLOUISIANA OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH ALABAMA DEFENSE UL RUNNING BACKSn=610% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553361%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELOUISIANA OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTH ALABAMA DEFENSE UL PASS CATCHERSn=2253% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USA SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM41% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+11
+9
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS68.1%
66.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.2%
52.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.3%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UL, ORANGE = USA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE