SAT 19:30 ET|RESER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP26|O/U47.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
7
7-6
31
33
70
25%
16
39
25.5
-170
-3.5
HOME
10
2-10
57
54
45
52%
81
13
22.0
+142
+3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALWSU7—ORST10
CLOSED WSU -3.5TOTAL 47.5ORST COVERED · 17 POINTS · UNDER
WSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ORST
WSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ORST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL47.5
SPREADWSU -3.5
IMPLIED — WSU25.5
IMPLIED — ORST22.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT23 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 23 positions on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
WSURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.4
WASHINGTON STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORSTRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.3
OREGON STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWASHINGTON STATEOREGON STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB95%Stephen HallPORTAL · MISSOURI · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKapena GushikenPORTAL · OLE MISS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEthan O'ConnorPORTAL · MIAMI · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB89%John MateerPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 89% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL77%David GustaPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSyrus WebsterEDGE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew EdsonEDGE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB76%Kyle ThorntonLB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaariq Al-UqdahPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE74%Kyle WilliamsDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKris HutsonPORTAL · ARIZONA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCooper MathersTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB68%Wayshawn ParkerPORTAL · UTAH · 53% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDjouvensky SchlenbakerPORTAL · UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL63%Esa PoleOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin KylanyPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRodrick TialaveaOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBCaleb Francl · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTA STATEMatt Durrance · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTA STATETucker Large · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTA STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBJulian Dugger · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHOwen Eshelman · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLMike Sandjo · PORTAL ★3 · SMUMax Baloun · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTA STATELuke Webb · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJovan Clark · SIGNEE ★3Sullivan Schlimgen · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEBeau Baker · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTA STATEJeremiah Noga · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATECash Landau · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBTravon Pankey · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLAJ Vaipulu · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATESone Falealo · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHOJaylin Caldwell · PORTAL ★3 · GRAND VALLEY STATE UNIVERSITY2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WASHINGTON STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
23.213 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.941 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
14.65 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6868479773 OF 7 GRADED
RB5252311774 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE505043582216 OF 22 GRADED
OL353541732111 OF 21 GRADED
DL626238432218 OF 22 GRADED
LB46464330138 OF 13 GRADED
DB636337152017 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE31st31
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%10
RECRUITING CLASS#71 · 0/33 BC47
CLASS RANK TREND-8 · 3 CYCLES34
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-5 · 34 IN / 70 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ORSTTRENT BRAY2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WSUJIMMY ROGERSFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6565
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3838
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWSU OFFENSEORST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOREGON STATE DEFENSE WSU QUARTERBACKSn=73% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS35% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE WSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2127% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS37% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE WSU RUNNING BACKSn=783% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS36% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555156%8%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454475%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSESECONDARYOREGON STATE DEFENSE WSU PASS CATCHERSn=2242% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM33% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−26
+49
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.1%
54.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.2%
73.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.2%
2.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WSU, ORANGE = ORST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE