THU 19:30 ET|RAYMOND JAMES STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP3|O/U66.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
23
7-6
53
61
28
96%
54
37
26.3
+440
+14.0
HOME
55
9-4
56
84
48
100%
78
17
40.3
-600
-14.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUTSA23—USF55
CLOSED USF -14.0TOTAL 66.5USF COVERED · 78 POINTS · OVER
UTSA
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
USF
UTSA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
USF
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL66.5
SPREADUSF -14.0
IMPLIED — UTSA26.3
IMPLIED — USF40.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
69FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
UTSARECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.2
UTSA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USFRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+19.7
SOUTH FLORIDA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTSASOUTH FLORIDA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL69%Jimmori RobinsonPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon BrownDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAsyrus SimonDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB67%Martavius FrenchPORTAL · COLORADO · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamal LigonLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrevin RandleLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB63%Elliott DavisonS · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZah FrazierDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSyrus DumasCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB48%Brandon High Jr.PORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevorian BarnesPORTAL · TCU · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRocko GriffinPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE30%Chris CarpenterWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOscar CardenasTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJJ SparkmanWR · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL27%CJ JamesOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB8%Eddie Lee MarburgerPORTAL · UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLCameron Blaylock · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEE STATEDon Munnerlyn · PORTAL ★3 · TOLEDOCorey Walls · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBShad Banks Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · TCUBrandon Tucker · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TEXAS A&MJashad Presley · PORTAL ★3 · UCF1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBBrandon Jacob Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · UCFRJ Lester Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATECameron Upshaw Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHIS3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBA'Marion Peterson · PORTAL ★3 · USCJohn Emery Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · LSUREFILLED
WR/TEAJ Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · HOUSTON CHRISTIANJaelen Smith · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATETy Rupe · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLTrevor Timmons · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEA'marion Breland · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBNoah Lugo · PORTAL ★3 · BYUMax Gerlich · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTSA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
44.157 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
64.290 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
31.831 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5757659242 OF 4 GRADED
RB4848718895 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE626249852219 OF 22 GRADED
OL454539672013 OF 20 GRADED
DL474761611816 OF 18 GRADED
LB444451551918 OF 19 GRADED
DB454551692221 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE53rd53
BLUE-CHIP RATIO18%68
RECRUITING CLASS#107 · 0/11 BC20
CLASS RANK TREND-48 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 20 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USFALEX GOLESH3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8080
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UTSAJEFF TRAYLOR6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUTSA OFFENSEUSF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTSA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE UTSA QUARTERBACKSn=48% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS30% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTSA OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE UTSA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2033% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS43% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTSA OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE UTSA RUNNING BACKSn=912% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555230%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTSA OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE UTSA PASS CATCHERSn=2215% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM20% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UTSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−2
−23
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UTSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UTSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.5%
59.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.7%
58.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.7%
4.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UTSA, ORANGE = USF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE