SAT 12:00 ET|MICHIE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP17|O/U45.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
13
5-7
18
47
21
100%
3
84
19.0
+215
+7.5
HOME
14
7-6
1
20
30
25%
47
48
26.5
-260
-7.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALTEM13—ARMY14
CLOSED ARMY -7.5TOTAL 45.5TEM COVERED · 27 POINTS · UNDER
TEM
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ARMY
TEM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ARMY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL45.5
SPREADARMY -7.5
IMPLIED — TEM19.0
IMPLIED — ARMY26.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
53FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT17 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 17 positions on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
TEMRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.8
TEMPLE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARMYRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.1-5.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.3
ARMY won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEMPLEARMY2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB71%Andreas KeatonS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamel JohnsonPORTAL · NC STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah DeravilCB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB71%Tyquan KingPORTAL · UCONN · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTra ThomasPORTAL · NC STATE · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntwone SantiagoPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE69%Ashton AllenWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames Della PescaTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDante WrightWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB56%Antwain Littleton Jr.PORTAL · RHODE ISLAND · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONE.J. WilsonPORTAL · ABILENE CHRISTIAN · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL37%Melvin SianiPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWisdom QuarshieOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames FaminuPORTAL · UNLV · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL32%Latrell JeanDT · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDiwun BlackDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB24%Forrest BrockQB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBDontae Pollard · PORTAL ★3 · SAMFORDEarl Kulp · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEPooh Lawton · PORTAL ★3 · SLIPPERY ROCK5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJalen Stewart · PORTAL ★3 · MASSACHUSETTSWilly Love · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTHREFILLED
WR/TEColin Chase · PORTAL ★3 · ST. THOMASThomas Nance · PORTAL ★3 · BETHUNE-COOKMANJake Woods · PORTAL ★3 · CAL POLY2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJay Ducker · PORTAL ★3 · SAM HOUSTONHunter Smith · PORTAL ★3 · UL MONROETylik Mitchell · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DLDemerick Morris · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEREFILLED
QBGevani McCoy · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEAnthony Chiccitt · PORTAL ★3 · ROBERT MORRISCamren Boykin · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEMPLE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
44.758 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
51.771 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.147 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4242229062 OF 6 GRADED
RB3838401495 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE383841461911 OF 19 GRADED
OL484844791813 OF 18 GRADED
DL303054891513 OF 15 GRADED
LB434327541915 OF 19 GRADED
DB424235352418 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE18th18
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%16
RECRUITING CLASS#123 · 0/16 BC8
CLASS RANK TREND-38 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 24 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARMYJEFF MONKEN10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TEMK.C. KEELERFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTEM OFFENSEARMY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEMPLE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARMY DEFENSE TEM QUARTERBACKSn=610% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 74 PLAYERS9% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEMPLE OFFENSEFRONT-7ARMY DEFENSE TEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=1821% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY FRONT-7n=45 · 2 ROOMS19% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEMPLE OFFENSEFRONT-7ARMY DEFENSE TEM RUNNING BACKSn=986% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS18% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.551869%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEMPLE OFFENSESECONDARYARMY DEFENSE TEM PASS CATCHERSn=1954% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY SECONDARYn=29 · 1 ROOM1% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−19
−45
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.5%
90.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.2%
27.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.7%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TEM, ORANGE = ARMY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE