SAT 15:00 ET|DELAWARE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP12|O/U57.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
8-5
16
12
19
54%
42
24
31.5
-215
-5.5
HOME
25
7-6
4
40
3
0%
93
11
26.0
+180
+5.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALLT24—DEL25
CLOSED LT -5.5TOTAL 57.5DEL COVERED · 49 POINTS · UNDER
LT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
DEL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL57.5
SPREADLT -5.5
IMPLIED — LT31.5
IMPLIED — DEL26.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
65FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
LTRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
LOUISIANA TECH won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
DELRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.4-6.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.8
DELAWARE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLOUISIANA TECHDELAWARE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL93%Jessie EvansDL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMykol ClarkDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid Blay Jr.PORTAL · MIAMI · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE65%Tru EdwardsWR · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJimmy HolidayWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAbdul-Fatai IbrahimWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL63%Bert HaleOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniel KeysOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJerren GilbertOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB52%Demarcus Griffin-TaylorDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlake ThompsonPORTAL · HOUSTON · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah McelvaneDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB45%Zach ZimosLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCJ HarrisLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB29%Marquis CrosbyPORTAL · OREGON STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonerio DavenportPORTAL · JACKSON STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB17%Jack TurnerQB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLDaylin Page · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDevin Gandy · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATELuke Seib · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPDaejawn Smith · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJonathan Denis · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MISSOURIToby Mealer · SIGNEE ★3Ervin Smith · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBCurley Reed · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONJordan Pierro · PORTAL ★3 · FRESNO STATEKam Franklin · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJaylon Parnell · SIGNEE ★3Zheric Hill · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBAndrew Burnette · PORTAL ★3 · KEISER (FL)REFILLED
QBJackson Bradley · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LOUISIANA TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.441 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
36.438 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
38.044 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6565376563 OF 6 GRADED
RB5858333375 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE494941482114 OF 21 GRADED
OL444449851810 OF 18 GRADED
DL212142321412 OF 14 GRADED
LB52524488138 OF 13 GRADED
DB464633722116 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE16th16
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%8
RECRUITING CLASS#111 · 0/14 BC17
CLASS RANK TREND-34 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 9 IN / 33 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
DELRYAN CARTYFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9898
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9494
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LTSONNY CUMBIE4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5353
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLT OFFENSEDEL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLOUISIANA TECH OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEDELAWARE DEFENSE LT QUARTERBACKSn=635% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DEL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS61% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLOUISIANA TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7DELAWARE DEFENSE LT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1815% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DEL FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS13% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLOUISIANA TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7DELAWARE DEFENSE LT RUNNING BACKSn=767% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DEL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS12% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555580%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELOUISIANA TECH OFFENSESECONDARYDELAWARE DEFENSE LT PASS CATCHERSn=2152% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DEL SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM100% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DEL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−29
−18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DEL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DEL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS66.7%
46.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.7%
74.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LT, ORANGE = DEL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE