SAT 15:30 ET|SEIBERT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP|O/U56.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
ETSUSOCONEAST TENNESSEE STATE 38
7-5
0
0
0
0%
0
—
37.5
—
-18.5
HOME
14
1-11
0
0
0
0%
0
—
19.0
—
+18.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALETSU38—SAM14
CLOSED ETSU -18.5TOTAL 56.5ETSU COVERED · 52 POINTS · UNDER
ETSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
SAM
ETSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SAM
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT2 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADETSU -18.5
IMPLIED — ETSU37.5
IMPLIED — SAM19.0
PACE COLLISION
UNMEASURED × UNMEASURED
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
No 2025 record, and no earlier season to carry forward for these teams.
TEAM LEDGEREAST TENNESSEE STATESAMFORD2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Jaylen KingPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB0%Devin IngramRB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
WR/TE0%AJ JohnsonPORTAL · UAB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%Jaylen GeorgePORTAL · NEBRASKA · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB0%Ray ConeyPORTAL · TULSA · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DB0%Jayvon HendersonPORTAL · SOUTH ALABAMA · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJacolby Criswell · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINACade McNamara · PORTAL ★4 · IOWAINTACT
RBD'Marius Rucker · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINAINTACT
WR/TESterling Galban · PORTAL ★3 · MASSACHUSETTSTaharin Sudderth · PORTAL ★3 · MIDDLE TENNESSEECharlie Browder · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEINTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLKaven Call · PORTAL ★3 · UCFChris Davis Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEIsaiah Potts · PORTAL ★3 · CAMPBELLINTACT
LBJamari Farmer · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANADrew Francis · PORTAL ★3 · MIDDLE TENNESSEETrevor Moffitt · PORTAL ★3 · GARDNER-WEBBINTACT
DBQua Birdsong · PORTAL ★4 · UCFWilliam Wells · PORTAL ★3 · UCFJavion Clark · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINAINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · EAST TENNESSEE STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB46464205CARRIED FROM 2024 · NOTHING GRADED YET
RB4444—957CARRIED FROM 2024 · NOTHING GRADED YET
WR/TE3535558219CARRIED FROM 2024 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL——28—18CARRIED FROM 2024 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL——454910CARRIED FROM 2024 · NOTHING GRADED YET
LB7676596518CARRIED FROM 2024 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DB——407020CARRIED FROM 2024 · NOTHING GRADED YET
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
RECRUITING CLASS#161 · 0/15 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND+15 · 2 CYCLES80
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SAM—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ETSU—FIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESETSU OFFENSESAM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBEAST TENNESSEE STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESAMFORD DEFENSE ETSU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SAM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS62% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLEAST TENNESSEE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7SAMFORD DEFENSE ETSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18RETURNING SHARE NOT MEASURED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SAM FRONT-7n=25 · 2 ROOMS68% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBEAST TENNESSEE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7SAMFORD DEFENSE ETSU RUNNING BACKSn=75% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SAM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 25 PLAYERS71% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.55—49%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEEAST TENNESSEE STATE OFFENSESECONDARYSAMFORD DEFENSE ETSU PASS CATCHERSn=1918% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SAM SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM57% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ETSU, ORANGE = SAM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE