SAT 15:30 ET|ARIZONA STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/U56.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
5-7
66
87
56
41%
32
94
25.5
+180
+5.5
HOME
24
9-4
52
68
90
56%
65
56
31.0
-218
-5.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALKU20—ARIZ24
CLOSED ARIZ -5.5TOTAL 56.5KU COVERED · 44 POINTS · UNDER
KU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ARIZ
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADARIZ -5.5
IMPLIED — KU25.5
IMPLIED — ARIZ31.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
55FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
KURECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
KANSAS won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARIZRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.7
ARIZONA won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKANSASARIZONA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE94%Jared CaseyTE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke GrimmWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor KardellTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB94%JB BrownLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCornell WheelerLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaiwan Berryhill Jr.LB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB79%Devin NealDRAFTED · 68% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSevion MorrisonRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB79%O.J. BurroughsS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMello DotsonCB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCobee BryantCB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL56%Michael Ford Jr.OL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce CabeldueDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLogan BrownOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL45%Jereme RobinsonDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb TaylorDT · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan WudkeDE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEEmmanuel Henderson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMABryson Canty · PORTAL ★3 · COLUMBIABoden Groen · PORTAL ★3 · RICE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBBangally Kamara · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINATrey Lathan · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAPARTIAL
RBJohn Kelly · SIGNEE ★3Justin Thurman · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJahlil Hurley · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMASyeed Gibbs · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHChris McCorkle · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJack Tanner · PORTAL ★3 · TULSATavake Tuikolovatu · PORTAL ★3 · UCLADeAndre Harper · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWEST MISSOURI STREFILLED
DLJustice Finkley · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASMalachi Curvey · SIGNEE ★3Adrian Holley · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KANSAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.832 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
41.752 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
29.524 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7070269953 OF 5 GRADED
RB5959436486 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE737367102216 OF 22 GRADED
OL666663602019 OF 20 GRADED
DL626254621915 OF 19 GRADED
LB5656674109 OF 10 GRADED
DB515170442114 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE66th66
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%50
RECRUITING CLASS#72 · 0/15 BC47
CLASS RANK TREND+1 · 3 CYCLES52
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 27 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARIZBRENT BRENNAN2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8686
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
KULANCE LEIPOLD5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2222
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5656
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESKU OFFENSEARIZ OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKANSAS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARIZONA DEFENSE KU QUARTERBACKSn=51% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS52% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKANSAS OFFENSEFRONT-7ARIZONA DEFENSE KU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2040% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS67% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKANSAS OFFENSEFRONT-7ARIZONA DEFENSE KU RUNNING BACKSn=836% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS66% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554523%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKANSAS OFFENSESECONDARYARIZONA DEFENSE KU PASS CATCHERSn=2290% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARIZ SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM39% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
KU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+8
−29
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
KU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
KU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARIZ
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.8%
55.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.7%
68.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = KU, ORANGE = ARIZ) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE