SAT 16:00 ET|FIRSTBANK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP31|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
38
5-7
91
67
90
22%
66
—
20.3
+190
+6.0
HOME
45
10-3
61
100
44
86%
12
75
26.3
-230
-6.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALAUB38—VAN45
CLOSED VAN -6.0TOTAL 46.5VAN COVERED · 83 POINTS · OVER
AUB
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
VAN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=51
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADVAN -6.0
IMPLIED — AUB20.3
IMPLIED — VAN26.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
49FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT13 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 13 positions on a 51-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
AUBRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-6
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.1
AUBURN won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
VANRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+17.5
VANDERBILT won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAUBURNVANDERBILT2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Payton ThorneQB · 88% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHank BrownPORTAL · IOWA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB77%Dorian Mausi Jr.LB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEugene AsanteLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin KeysLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB72%Jarquez HunterDRAFTED · 71% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE68%Rivaldo FairweatherTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeAndre Lambert-SmithDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke DealTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL46%Jalen McLeodDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah RaikesDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPhilip BlidiDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB38%Jerrin ThompsonS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb WoodenPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeionte ScottPORTAL · MIAMI · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL3%Ronan ChambersOL · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJackson Arnold · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMADeuce Knight · SIGNEE ★5REFILLED
LBJ.J. Faulk · SIGNEE ★4Elijah Melendez · SIGNEE ★4Bryce Deas · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBAlvin Henderson · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEEric Singleton Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIA TECHHoratio Fields · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FORESTHollis Davidson III · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLJared Smith · SIGNEE ★4Malik Autry · SIGNEE ★4Jourdin Crawford · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBRaion Strader · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMI (OH)AnQuon Fegans · SIGNEE ★4Eric Winters · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLXavier Chaplin · PORTAL ★4 · VIRGINIA TECHMason Murphy · PORTAL ★4 · USCBroderick Shull · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · AUBURN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.853 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.662 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.749 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB575767053 OF 5 GRADED
RB5555859085 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE474789602015 OF 20 GRADED
OL555589562012 OF 20 GRADED
DL656576552114 OF 21 GRADED
LB7777824398 OF 9 GRADED
DB616189692213 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE91st91
BLUE-CHIP RATIO57%90
RECRUITING CLASS#8 · 18/26 BC95
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+5 · 21 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
VANCLARK LEA5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
AUBHUGH FREEZE3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4545
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAUB OFFENSEVAN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAUBURN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEVANDERBILT DEFENSE AUB QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS30% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAUBURN OFFENSEFRONT-7VANDERBILT DEFENSE AUB OFFENSIVE LINEn=2044% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS20% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAUBURN OFFENSEFRONT-7VANDERBILT DEFENSE AUB RUNNING BACKSn=810% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS19% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555869%11%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456296%18%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAUBURN OFFENSESECONDARYVANDERBILT DEFENSE AUB PASS CATCHERSn=2040% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM37% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
AUB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VAN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+12
−33
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
AUB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VAN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
AUB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VAN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.8%
55.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.9%
67.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.9%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = AUB, ORANGE = VAN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE