SAT 12:00 ET|BOONE PICKENS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U50.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
6-6
66
69
54
69%
15
66
35.0
-1600
-19.5
HOME
6
1-11
65
22
50
45%
27
63
15.5
+800
+19.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALKSU14—OKST6
CLOSED KSU -19.5TOTAL 50.5OKST COVERED · 20 POINTS · UNDER
KSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
OKST
KSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
OKST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADKSU -19.5
IMPLIED — KSU35.0
IMPLIED — OKST15.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
43FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 58-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
KSURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.7-5.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.8
KANSAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OKSTRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.4-10.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-19.2
OKLAHOMA STATE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKANSAS STATEOKLAHOMA STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB61%DJ GiddensDRAFTED · 60% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB59%Marques SigleDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob ParrishDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeenan GarberCB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL53%Hadley PanzerOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEaston KiltyOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarver WillisPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE36%Keagan JohnsonPORTAL · NEW MEXICO · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDante CephasWR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJadon JacksonWR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB33%Austin MooreLB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL20%Brendan MottDE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB2%Ta'Quan RobersonPORTAL · BUFFALO · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBAmarion Fortenberry · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMAGunner Maldonado · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONANoah King · SIGNEE ★46 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJB Nelson · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEGeorge Fitzpatrick · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEBrock Heath · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJerand Bradley · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGECaleb Medford · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOLinkon Cure · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBGabe Powers · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEWeston Polk · SIGNEE ★3Darien Whitaker Jr. · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJayshawn Ross · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMADalton Knapp · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBDillon Duff · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KANSAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
61.593 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
66.694 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
58.386 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB52529610051 OF 5 GRADED
RB3838709066 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE525261602114 OF 21 GRADED
OL505061742012 OF 20 GRADED
DL5757641001611 OF 16 GRADED
LB66666288137 OF 13 GRADED
DB595958682215 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE66th66
BLUE-CHIP RATIO14%61
RECRUITING CLASS#35 · 2/25 BC74
CLASS RANK TREND-2 · 3 CYCLES46
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 16 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OKSTMIKE GUNDY10TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
KSUCHRIS KLIEMAN7TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESKSU OFFENSEOKST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE KSU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7OKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE KSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2026% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS68% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKANSAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7OKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE KSU RUNNING BACKSn=610% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS69% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555635%16%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKANSAS STATE OFFENSESECONDARYOKLAHOMA STATE DEFENSE KSU PASS CATCHERSn=2140% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OKST SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OKST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−4
+54
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OKST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
KSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OKST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.5%
54.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.3%
59.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
1.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = KSU, ORANGE = OKST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE