SAT 13:00 ET|CHAPMAN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U50.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
2-10
57
54
45
52%
81
—
24.5
+105
+1.5
HOME
31
4-8
39
16
37
99%
99
18
26.0
-125
-1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALORST14—TLSA31
CLOSED TLSA -1.5TOTAL 50.5TLSA COVERED · 45 POINTS · UNDER
ORST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TLSA
ORST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TLSA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADTLSA -1.5
IMPLIED — ORST24.5
IMPLIED — TLSA26.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
57FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT16 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 16 positions on a 58-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
ORSTRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.3
OREGON STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TLSARECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.8
TULSA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROREGON STATETULSA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB90%Gevani McCoyPORTAL · TEMPLE · 58% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBen GulbransonPORTAL · STANFORD · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL62%Joshua GrayOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrant StarckOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFlavio GonzalezOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL43%Semisi SaluniDL · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOluwaseyi OmotoshoPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE43%Jermaine Terry IITE · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah NogaPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB39%Andre Jordan Jr.PORTAL · UCLA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden RobinsonDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack KanePORTAL · RICE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB36%Isaiah ChisomPORTAL · UCLA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMelvin Jordan IVPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB16%Jam GriffinRB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMaalik Murphy · PORTAL ★4 · DUKETristan Ti'a · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLWill Larkins · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEKeyon Cox · PORTAL ★3 · UCFJake Normoyle · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLNiklas Fisher · SIGNEE ★3Bleu Dantzler · SIGNEE ★3Logan Knapp · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TERiley Williams · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMICody Siegner · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBTyjai Hopper · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONTJ Crandall · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIABlake Thompson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBRaesjon Davis · PORTAL ★3 · USCREFILLED
RBMarquis Crosby · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANA TECHKourdey Glass · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OREGON STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.578 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
43.558 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
60.489 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7272842543 OF 4 GRADED
RB4242698377 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE535374822013 OF 20 GRADED
OL565651552114 OF 21 GRADED
DL51516156129 OF 12 GRADED
LB444445752115 OF 21 GRADED
DB545459672116 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE57th57
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%52
RECRUITING CLASS#64 · 0/20 BC53
CLASS RANK TREND-15 · 3 CYCLES20
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 14 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TLSATRE LAMBFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ORSTTRENT BRAY2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESORST OFFENSETLSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOREGON STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETULSA DEFENSE ORST QUARTERBACKSn=475% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS51% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOREGON STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TULSA DEFENSE ORST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2145% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS70% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOREGON STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TULSA DEFENSE ORST RUNNING BACKSn=717% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS69% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554726%5%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOREGON STATE OFFENSESECONDARYTULSA DEFENSE ORST PASS CATCHERSn=2018% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ORST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+49
+14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ORST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ORST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.6%
57.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS73.3%
57.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.1%
0.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ORST, ORANGE = TLSA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE