SAT 15:30 ET|MACKAY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U49.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
3-9
21
53
16
59%
51
62
29.8
-375
-10.0
HOME
55
3-9
14
15
33
66%
2
31
19.8
+295
+10.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALSJSU10—NEV55
CLOSED SJSU -10.0TOTAL 49.5NEV COVERED · 65 POINTS · OVER
SJSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NEV
SJSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NEV
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADSJSU -10.0
IMPLIED — SJSU29.8
IMPLIED — NEV19.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
44FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 58-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
SJSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.3-8.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
SAN JOSÉ STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NEVRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.1-8.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.9
NEVADA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSAN JOSÉ STATENEVADA2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE72%Nick NashWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin LockhartWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTreyShun HurryPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL69%Soane ToiaDL · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn WardDL · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan HampstenPORTAL · SACRAMENTO STATE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB67%Robert RahimiS · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ HarveyPORTAL · USC · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael DansbyPORTAL · ARIZONA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB40%Emmett BrownQB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL31%Malik WilliamsPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarist TalavouOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB16%Jordan CobbsLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB0%Kayden CollinsRB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TELeland Smith · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEMason Starling · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIAMalachi Riley · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLVili Taufatofua · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHJireh Moe · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMaliki Crawford · PORTAL ★3 · USCCaleb Presley · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONJT Taylor · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBRobert McDaniel · PORTAL ★3 · UCLATama Amisone · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLJordan Tonga · SIGNEE ★3Daniel Tuliau · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBBlake Tabaracci · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOCayden Woolwine · PORTAL · NORTHERN ARIZONASirr Bible · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBSteve Chavez-Soto · SIGNEE ★3Sir Autry · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SAN JOSÉ STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
54.281 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
54.479 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.176 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6262649743 OF 4 GRADED
RB5555745366 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE45455430199 OF 19 GRADED
OL434324872416 OF 24 GRADED
DL2626484488 OF 8 GRADED
LB232316100179 OF 17 GRADED
DB30303771189 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE21st21
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%25
RECRUITING CLASS#117 · 0/12 BC13
CLASS RANK TREND-5 · 3 CYCLES40
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 13 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NEVJEFF CHOATE2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1212
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SJSUKEN NIUMATALOLO2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2929
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSJSU OFFENSENEV OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENEVADA DEFENSE SJSU QUARTERBACKSn=43% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE SJSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2413% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS32% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE SJSU RUNNING BACKSn=647% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS34% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554084%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESAN JOSÉ STATE OFFENSESECONDARYNEVADA DEFENSE SJSU PASS CATCHERSn=1970% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM83% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SJSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+7
−2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SJSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SJSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS45.3%
61.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS76.7%
55.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.8%
3.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SJSU, ORANGE = NEV) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE