SAT 15:30 ET|M. M. ROBERTS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/U65.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
41
7-6
45
75
14
93%
95
2
31.3
+136
+3.0
HOME
14
7-6
40
27
17
52%
64
17
34.3
-162
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTXST41—USM14
CLOSED USM -3.0TOTAL 65.5TXST COVERED · 55 POINTS · UNDER
TXST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
USM
TXST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
USM
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL65.5
SPREADUSM -3.0
IMPLIED — TXST31.3
IMPLIED — USM34.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
67FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 58-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
TXSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.5
TEXAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USMRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.6-5.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.4
SOUTHERN MISS won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXAS STATESOUTHERN MISS2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB96%Jordan McCloudQB · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRJ MartinezQB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB87%James NealLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax HarrisPORTAL · ARIZONA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenny HaynesLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL74%Brice BassDE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerry WebbPORTAL · SMU · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTavian ColemanPORTAL · COLORADO · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE73%Konner FoxTE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKole WilsonPORTAL · BAYLOR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden WilliamsWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB60%Ismail MahdiPORTAL · ARIZONA · 50% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeion HankinsRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL58%Chayse ToddOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex HarkeyPORTAL · OREGON · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNash JonesOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB57%Jordan PolkCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris MillsCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaleb CulpS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNate Yarnell · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHHolden Geriner · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNKeldric Luster · PORTAL ★3 · SMU1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBTJ Burkhalter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDonTerry Russell · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEDavid Abiara · PORTAL ★3 · SMUJordan Sanders · PORTAL ★3 · CAL POLY3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TETyrin Smith · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATITy Mims · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSCole Snodgrass · PORTAL ★3 · TCU3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBCole Pryor · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLLysander Moeolo · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEAmeer Ross · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMalik Willis · PORTAL ★3 · CAMPBELLChase Davis · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATEJayden Bradley · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
31.024 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.426 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
30.728 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252279953 OF 5 GRADED
RB5454187474 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE474730512313 OF 23 GRADED
OL575747641912 OF 19 GRADED
DL505061502221 OF 22 GRADED
LB41414344129 OF 12 GRADED
DB505033471817 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE45th45
BLUE-CHIP RATIO10%50
RECRUITING CLASS#101 · 0/18 BC25
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 34 IN / 34 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USMCHARLES HUFFFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3232
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1515
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TXSTG.J. KINNE3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTXST OFFENSEUSM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE TXST QUARTERBACKSn=51% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS83% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE TXST OFFENSIVE LINEn=1936% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS63% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE TXST RUNNING BACKSn=726% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS61% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554827%9%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS STATE OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTHERN MISS DEFENSE TXST PASS CATCHERSn=2349% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USM SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM99% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−9
+8
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USM
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS63.1%
55.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS53.5%
61.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.5%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TXST, ORANGE = USM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE