SAT 16:00 ET|YULMAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/U60.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
4-8
41
49
18
21%
97
75
22.0
+550
+16.5
HOME
35
11-3
51
31
36
15%
53
36
38.5
-800
-16.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALFAU24—TULN35
CLOSED TULN -16.5TOTAL 60.5FAU COVERED · 59 POINTS · UNDER
FAU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TULN
FAU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TULN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL60.5
SPREADTULN -16.5
IMPLIED — FAU22.0
IMPLIED — TULN38.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT14 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 14 positions on a 58-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
FAURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.8
FLORIDA ATLANTIC won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TULNRECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs8.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.5
TULANE won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA ATLANTICTULANE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB97%Eddie WilliamsLB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackson AmbushLB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDesmond TisdolLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB85%CJ Campbell Jr.PORTAL · RUTGERS · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZuberi MobleyPORTAL · TULANE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL84%Chris JonesDE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevonta DavisDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden WheelerDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB81%Cam FancherPORTAL · UCF · 63% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyriq StarksPORTAL · HOWARD · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE79%Wyatt SullivanPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZeke MoorePORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmari HayesPORTAL · TULANE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB72%CJ HeardPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKahzir BrownDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPhillip DunnamPORTAL · UCF · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL50%Jordan ChurchPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndre LamasOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFederico MarangesOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBHector Chavez · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBEthan Ervin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLTycoolhill Luman · PORTAL ★3 · RUTGERSChenellson Exume · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDACameron Gooden · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBJordan Magwood · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEQuincy Brown · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATEDamien Alford · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHMichael Kirch · PORTAL ★3 · THOMAS MORE COLLEGE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBDillion Williams · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPTerez Reid · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPMJ Hinson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS SOUTHERN1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLMadden Sanker · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLERain Banick · SIGNEE ★3Landon Rapkiewicz · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
CARRIED COMPOSITE
16.03 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
11.34 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
18.88 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB595917065 OF 6 GRADED
RB5353589565 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE505041441916 OF 19 GRADED
OL555535572213 OF 22 GRADED
DL464654501512 OF 15 GRADED
LB35355216106 OF 10 GRADED
DB515139232621 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE41st41
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%47
RECRUITING CLASS#85 · 0/19 BC37
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 38 IN / 36 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TULNJON SUMRALL2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FAUZACH KITTLEYFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
100100
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFAU OFFENSETULN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETULANE DEFENSE FAU QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TULN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS45% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFRONT-7TULANE DEFENSE FAU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2243% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TULN FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS57% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFRONT-7TULANE DEFENSE FAU RUNNING BACKSn=65% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TULN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS55% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555025%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSESECONDARYTULANE DEFENSE FAU PASS CATCHERSn=1956% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TULN SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM34% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TULN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+13
−17
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TULN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TULN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS41.7%
57.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS75.1%
53.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE4.7%
0.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FAU, ORANGE = TULN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE