SAT 16:15 ET|NEYLAND STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP83|O/U59.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
9
4-8
6
8
41
56%
87
1
9.0
—
+41.5
HOME
42
8-5
89
94
27
22%
92
83
50.5
—
-41.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALNMSU9—TENN42
CLOSED TENN -41.5TOTAL 59.5NMSU COVERED · 51 POINTS · UNDER
NMSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TENN
NMSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TENN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL59.5
SPREADTENN -41.5
IMPLIED — NMSU9.0
IMPLIED — TENN50.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
65FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
NMSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.0
NEW MEXICO STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TENNRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.0
TENNESSEE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEW MEXICO STATETENNESSEE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB91%Seth McGowanPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMike Washington Jr.PORTAL · ARKANSAS · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMonte WatkinsRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL90%Buddha PeletiPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKale EdwardsDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNaki FahinaPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL82%AJ VaipuluPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCanaan YarroOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLouie CanepaOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB67%Tayden BarnesPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeonte GlintonCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan EarlyS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB49%Santino MarucciQB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon NunezPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeuce HoganPORTAL · NICHOLLS · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE39%Kordell DavidWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan SmithPORTAL · NICHOLLS · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHunter TalleyTE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB21%Justin BeadlesPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBDijon Stanley · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHKadarius Calloway · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIAREFILLED
DLGabe Peterson · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATELarry Jones III · PORTAL ★3 · LIBERTYEzra Christensen · PORTAL ★3 · FRESNO STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMa'Kyi Lee · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASJanik Ogunlade · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA A&MMalik Williams · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBLorenzo Smith · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH ALABAMAArmahn Hale · PORTAL ★3 · KENT STATEPARTIAL
QBLogan Fife · PORTAL ★3 · MONTANAJaylen Patterson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEJoshua Goines · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEAJ Williams · PORTAL ★3 · MARY HARDIN-BAYLORTyler King · PORTAL ★3 · WYOMING2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBZaiden Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEW MEXICO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
36.640 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
38.644 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
35.639 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB252538163 OF 6 GRADED
RB3232221996 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE393951442013 OF 20 GRADED
OL333331281810 OF 18 GRADED
DL414140361914 OF 19 GRADED
LB30303555115 OF 11 GRADED
DB474726681914 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE6th6
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%33
RECRUITING CLASS#126 · 0/10 BC6
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 21 IN / 33 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TENNJOSH HEUPEL5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NMSUTONY SANCHEZ2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNMSU OFFENSETENN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETENNESSEE DEFENSE NMSU QUARTERBACKSn=699% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS27% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TENNESSEE DEFENSE NMSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1872% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS12% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TENNESSEE DEFENSE NMSU RUNNING BACKSn=981% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS13% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557191%57%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456483%50%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSESECONDARYTENNESSEE DEFENSE NMSU PASS CATCHERSn=2056% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM39% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−6
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS46.7%
56.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.5%
64.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.2%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NMSU, ORANGE = TENN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE