SAT 19:00 ET|MCLANE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U60.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
55
11-2
69
95
53
14%
90
70
35.0
-360
-9.5
HOME
28
5-7
75
80
74
83%
99
84
25.5
+285
+9.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUTAH55—BAY28
CLOSED UTAH -9.5TOTAL 60.5UTAH COVERED · 83 POINTS · OVER
UTAH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
BAY
UTAH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BAY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL60.5
SPREADUTAH -9.5
IMPLIED — UTAH35.0
IMPLIED — BAY25.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
69FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT5 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 5 positions on a 58-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
UTAHRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.4-1.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+22.4
UTAH won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BAYRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.5
BAYLOR won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTAHBAYLOR2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB100%Micah BernardRB · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDijon StanleyPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMike MitchellRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE80%Dorian SingerWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrant KuitheTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarsen RyanPORTAL · BYU · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL61%Van FillingerDE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJunior TafunaDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeanu TanuvasaPORTAL · BYU · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB42%Zemaiah VaughnCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlaka'i GilmanS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam CalhounPORTAL · ALABAMA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB37%Karene ReidLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSione FotuPORTAL · HOUSTON · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB36%Cameron RisingQB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon RosePORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke BottariQB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL5%Falcon KaumatuleOL · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBWayshawn Parker · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTON STATERaycine Guillory Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Daniel Bray · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TELarry Simmons · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN MISSCreed Whittemore · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATETobias Merriweather · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLKarson Kaufusi · SIGNEE ★3Pupu Sepulona · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBlake Cotton · PORTAL ★3 · UC DAVISJC Hart · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNJason Stokes Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBCyrus Polu · SIGNEE ★4Christian Thatcher · SIGNEE ★3Max Fonoimoana · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBDevon Dampier · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOWyatt Becker · SIGNEE ★3Byrd Ficklin · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLNick Hallock · SIGNEE ★3Soren Shinofield · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTAH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.374 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.574 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.171 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB838377053 OF 5 GRADED
RB6565800105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE616183392715 OF 27 GRADED
OL818172931812 OF 18 GRADED
DL575775811712 OF 17 GRADED
LB66668373128 OF 12 GRADED
DB545480702115 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE69th69
BLUE-CHIP RATIO18%69
RECRUITING CLASS#40 · 1/25 BC71
CLASS RANK TREND-20 · 3 CYCLES10
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 21 IN / 33 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 10th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BAYDAVE ARANDA6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UTAHKYLE WHITTINGHAM10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2828
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUTAH OFFENSEBAY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTAH OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBAYLOR DEFENSE UTAH QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS23% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTAH OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE UTAH OFFENSIVE LINEn=187% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTAH OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE UTAH RUNNING BACKSn=10100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS28% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553862%9%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTAH OFFENSESECONDARYBAYLOR DEFENSE UTAH PASS CATCHERSn=2761% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY SECONDARYn=27 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UTAH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−27
+27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UTAH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UTAH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS67.7%
48.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.5%
73.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.8%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UTAH, ORANGE = BAY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE