SAT 19:00 ET|ALLEGIANT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP46|O/U68.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
26
6-7
18
42
51
63%
60
52
32.0
+165
+4.5
HOME
29
10-4
64
81
21
15%
44
35
36.5
-195
-4.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALUSU26—UNLV29
CLOSED UNLV -4.5TOTAL 68.5USU COVERED · 55 POINTS · UNDER
USU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UNLV
USU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UNLV
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL68.5
SPREADUNLV -4.5
IMPLIED — USU32.0
IMPLIED — UNLV36.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
59FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT13 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 13 positions on a 58-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
USURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.5
UTAH STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNLVRECORD OVERSTATES
10-3ACTUALvs8.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.1
UNLV won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTAH STATEUNLV2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB97%Rahsul FaisonPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 63% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHerschel TurnerPORTAL · NEVADA · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL89%Wyatt BowlesOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCole MotesOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONFalepule AloOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB78%Jordan VincentS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJD DrewPORTAL · TULSA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ Graham IIPORTAL · KANSAS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE74%Otto TiaPORTAL · UTAH · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyrese WhiteWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen RoyalsDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB73%Cian SlonePORTAL · NC STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaiden FrancoisPORTAL · DUKE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJon Ross MayeLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB70%Spencer PetrasQB · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL63%Lawrence FalateaDE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah BruceDT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlaine SpiresPORTAL · PITTSBURGH · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBRavian Larry · SIGNEE ★3Nehemiah Washington · SIGNEE ★3Feleti Iongi · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLSam Brousseau · SIGNEE ★3Tommy Olsen · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBDylan Tucker · PORTAL ★3 · ELONBrevin Hamblin · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH TECHCharger Doty · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TECarlos Orr-Gillespie · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOISBrady Boyd · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHDemick Starling · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKY6 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBRyker Mikkelsen · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBAnthony Garcia · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAREFILLED
DLTyree Morris · PORTAL ★3 · LAFAYETTENaki Fahina · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEPaxton Naegle · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTAH STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
23.314 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
17.612 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
26.819 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB47476110042 OF 4 GRADED
RB545411085 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE37373835199 OF 19 GRADED
OL343422361610 OF 16 GRADED
DL26262039118 OF 11 GRADED
LB424258682113 OF 21 GRADED
DB434336202113 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE18th18
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%17
RECRUITING CLASS#87 · 0/28 BC35
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 24 IN / 38 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNLVDAN MULLENFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5757
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5151
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USUBRONCO MENDENHALLFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2222
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSU OFFENSEUNLV OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTAH STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUNLV DEFENSE USU QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS77% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTAH STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7UNLV DEFENSE USU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1664% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS60% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTAH STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7UNLV DEFENSE USU RUNNING BACKSn=8100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553937%11%LINEBACKERSLB
0.453545%31%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTAH STATE OFFENSESECONDARYUNLV DEFENSE USU PASS CATCHERSn=1965% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM91% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−26
+4
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.0%
57.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.9%
61.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USU, ORANGE = UNLV) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE