SAT 22:30 ET|VALLEY CHILDREN'S STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/U40.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
3
4-8
15
4
77
77%
55
23
18.8
+124
+3.0
HOME
24
9-4
35
17
64
17%
41
19
21.8
-148
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALWYO3—FRES24
CLOSED FRES -3.0TOTAL 40.5FRES COVERED · 27 POINTS · UNDER
WYO
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
FRES
WYO
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FRES
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=58
MARKET
TOTAL40.5
SPREADFRES -3.0
IMPLIED — WYO18.8
IMPLIED — FRES21.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
24FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 58-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
WYORECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.5
WYOMING won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FRESRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
FRESNO STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWYOMINGFRESNO STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB99%Connor ShayLB · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShae SuiaunoaLB · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraden SidersPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB85%Tyrecus DavisCB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWrook BrownPORTAL · HOUSTON · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWyett EkelerS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB64%Jamari FerrellRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ JonesRB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHarrison WayleePORTAL · VIRGINIA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE59%Nick MilesTE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin StevensonWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill PelissierWR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL48%Jordan BertagnoleDT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSabastian HarshPORTAL · NC STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeVonne HarrisDE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL22%Nofoafia TulafonoC · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBSteven Perez · SIGNEE ★3Parker Moore · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBEnock Sibomana · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH DAKOTA STATETyson Deen · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBDamashja Harris · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASTerron Kellman · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTESamuel Harris · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEJackson Holman · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONADeion Deblanc · SIGNEE ★3Ke'Lyn Washom · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLChisom Ifeanyi · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ATLANTICAxel Ramazani · SIGNEE ★3Jason Handy · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKalvin Janssen · SIGNEE ★3Cooper Lawson · SIGNEE ★3Johnathan Bush · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WYOMING
CARRIED COMPOSITE
35.336 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
53.877 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
24.516 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4343478743 OF 4 GRADED
RB40403732105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE292926652115 OF 21 GRADED
OL383831901911 OF 19 GRADED
DL343436472514 OF 25 GRADED
LB3333323895 OF 9 GRADED
DB474747412114 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE15th15
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%3
RECRUITING CLASS#89 · 0/24 BC34
CLASS RANK TREND+21 · 3 CYCLES92
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 17 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FRESMATT ENTZFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WYOJAY SAWVEL2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2727
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3737
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWYO OFFENSEFRES OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWYOMING OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFRESNO STATE DEFENSE WYO QUARTERBACKSn=413% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS42% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWYOMING OFFENSEFRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE WYO OFFENSIVE LINEn=1910% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS55% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWYOMING OFFENSEFRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE WYO RUNNING BACKSn=1068% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS58% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555370%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWYOMING OFFENSESECONDARYFRESNO STATE DEFENSE WYO PASS CATCHERSn=2135% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM31% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−5
−17
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.5%
64.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.9%
70.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WYO, ORANGE = FRES) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE