SAT 12:00 ET|GERALD J. FORD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U49.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
6
9-4
64
72
84
46%
32
—
22.8
+154
+4.0
HOME
38
9-4
82
76
71
50%
45
—
26.8
-185
-4.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALLOU6—SMU38
CLOSED SMU -4.0TOTAL 49.5SMU COVERED · 44 POINTS · UNDER
LOU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SMU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=60
MARKET
TOTAL49.5
SPREADSMU -4.0
IMPLIED — LOU22.8
IMPLIED — SMU26.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
48FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 60-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
LOURECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.1
LOUISVILLE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SMURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.0-3.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.3
SMU won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLOUISVILLESMU2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Tyler ShoughDRAFTED · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHarrison BaileyQB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL77%Ashton GillotteDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRamon PuryearDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDezmond TellDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB68%Corey ThorntonDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONM.J. GriffinDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTamarion McDonaldDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%Mark RedmanTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJa'Corey BrooksWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamari JohnsonPORTAL · OREGON · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL62%Michael GonzalezOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMonroe MillsOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin CollinsPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB27%Benjamin PerryLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDan Foster Jr.LB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJurriente DavisLB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB24%Don ChaneyRB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMaurice TurnerPORTAL · TULANE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBMiller Moss · PORTAL ★4 · USCMason Mims · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJerry Lawson · PORTAL ★3 · ABILENE CHRISTIANKendrick Gilbert · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYClev Lubin · PORTAL ★3 · COASTAL CAROLINA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBCorey Gordon Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORJoseph Jefferson II · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN MICHIGANJustin Agu · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISIANA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TETreyShun Hurry · PORTAL ★3 · SAN JOSÉ STATEDacari Collins · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEDavon Mitchell · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMahamane Moussa · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUECameron Gorin · SIGNEE ★3Gradey Anthony · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBKalib Perry · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEECameron White · SIGNEE ★3Caleb Matelau · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBJamarice Wilder · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LOUISVILLE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
34.935 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
32.230 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.441 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB474788663 OF 6 GRADED
RB6868828965 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE595973802316 OF 23 GRADED
OL595972512014 OF 20 GRADED
DL646466461813 OF 18 GRADED
LB53537568109 OF 10 GRADED
DB686852501813 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE64th64
BLUE-CHIP RATIO20%72
RECRUITING CLASS#68 · 0/17 BC50
CLASS RANK TREND-37 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 30 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SMURHETT LASHLEE4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4848
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LOUJEFF BROHM3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLOU OFFENSESMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLOUISVILLE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESMU DEFENSE LOU QUARTERBACKSn=694% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS30% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLOUISVILLE OFFENSEFRONT-7SMU DEFENSE LOU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2049% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS42% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLOUISVILLE OFFENSEFRONT-7SMU DEFENSE LOU RUNNING BACKSn=611% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556544%5%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELOUISVILLE OFFENSESECONDARYSMU DEFENSE LOU PASS CATCHERSn=2320% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SMU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−17
−2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SMU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.8%
51.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS72.4%
72.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.7%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LOU, ORANGE = SMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE