SAT 16:00 ET|FBC MORTGAGE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U47.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
1-11
65
22
50
45%
27
—
17.0
+410
+13.5
HOME
17
5-7
69
66
82
31%
37
—
30.5
-550
-13.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALOKST14—UCF17
CLOSED UCF -13.5TOTAL 47.5OKST COVERED · 31 POINTS · UNDER
OKST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UCF
OKST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UCF
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=60
MARKET
TOTAL47.5
SPREADUCF -13.5
IMPLIED — OKST17.0
IMPLIED — UCF30.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
39FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 60-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
OKSTRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.4-10.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-19.2
OKLAHOMA STATE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UCFRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.8
UCF won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROKLAHOMA STATEUCF2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Alan BowmanQB · 75% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMaealiuaki SmithQB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGarret RangelQB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB98%Kendal DanielsPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeff RobersonPORTAL · MINNESOTA · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick MartinDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL96%Joe MichalskiOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPreston WilsonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCole BirminghamOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE68%Brennan PresleyWR · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDe'Zhaun StriblingPORTAL · OLE MISS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRashod OwensWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB66%Ollie Gordon IIDRAFTED · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake SchultzFB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL61%Obi EzeigboDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKody WalterscheidDE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCollin ClayNT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB47%Korie BlackDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey RuckerS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKobe HyltonS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBHauss Hejny · PORTAL ★3 · TCUREFILLED
LBDarius Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLECarl'veon Young · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLMarkell Samuel · PORTAL ★3 · APP STATEJaylan Beckley · SIGNEE ★3Simona Fuailetolo · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TETerrill Davis · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL OKLAHOMAChristian Fitzpatrick · PORTAL ★3 · MARSHALLCameron Abshire · PORTAL ★3 · EMORY & HENRY COLLEGE5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBDJ Dugar Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLKyran Duhon · PORTAL ★3 · UTEPWendell Gregory · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINADe'Marion Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILT2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBZaquan Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIJaylin Davies · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAJotavion Pierce · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OKLAHOMA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
30.423 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
17.011 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
37.442 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB434345054 OF 5 GRADED
RB4949588575 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE363665322315 OF 23 GRADED
OL494960372110 OF 21 GRADED
DL565675351916 OF 19 GRADED
LB4444352697 OF 9 GRADED
DB424263742318 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE65th65
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%58
RECRUITING CLASS#53 · 0/16 BC61
CLASS RANK TREND+1 · 3 CYCLES52
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 39 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 10th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UCFSCOTT FROSTFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7474
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9696
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OKSTMIKE GUNDY10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1717
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOKST OFFENSEUCF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUCF DEFENSE OKST QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS66% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7UCF DEFENSE OKST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2163% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS72% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7UCF DEFENSE OKST RUNNING BACKSn=715% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS74% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555746%21%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSESECONDARYUCF DEFENSE OKST PASS CATCHERSn=2368% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OKST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+54
+25
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OKST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OKST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.8%
52.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS59.6%
64.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.9%
1.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OKST, ORANGE = UCF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE