SAT 19:00 ET|ALBERTSONS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP8|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
2-10
34
36
20
50%
18
—
14.5
+600
+17.5
HOME
49
9-5
42
39
59
58%
93
42
32.0
-1000
-17.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · ESPN BET
FINALCSU21—BOIS49
CLOSED BOIS -17.5TOTAL 46.5BOIS COVERED · 70 POINTS · OVER
CSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
BOIS
CSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BOIS
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=60
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADBOIS -17.5
IMPLIED — CSU14.5
IMPLIED — BOIS32.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
58FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT34 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 34 positions on a 60-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
CSURECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.8-9.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.3
COLORADO STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BOISRECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs8.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.4
BOISE STATE won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCOLORADO STATEBOISE STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB83%Henry BlackburnDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDom JonesDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack HowellDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE77%Vince Brown IIPORTAL · MISSOURI · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamari PersonPORTAL · LIBERTY · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb Goodie Sr.PORTAL · CINCINNATI · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB70%Chase WilsonPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 37% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBuom JockPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL68%Gabe KirschkePORTAL · WAKE FOREST · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames MitchellDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam BariteauDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL57%Saveyon HendersonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDrew MossOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob GardnerOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB53%Avery MorrowRB · 48% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBJake Jarmolowich · PORTAL ★3 · HOLY CROSSCJ Blocker · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHJahari Rogers · PORTAL ★3 · SMU4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEKojo Antwi · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEPetey Tucker · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN MICHIGANClarence Taylor · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJacob Ellis · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATECannon Valenzuela · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLPaul Tangelo · PORTAL ★3 · SAINT FRANCIS (PA)Gabe Jones · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICO STATEJaQues Evans · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLOR3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKentez Allen · SIGNEE ★3Sione Netane · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBLloyd Avant · PORTAL ★3 · TULSAJavion Kinnard · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · COLORADO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
29.521 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
38.043 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
24.717 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3434497464 OF 6 GRADED
RB5959434974 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE343452472116 OF 21 GRADED
OL202040701710 OF 17 GRADED
DL111140501513 OF 15 GRADED
LB18186163139 OF 13 GRADED
DB383841292116 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE34th34
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%48
RECRUITING CLASS#106 · 0/13 BC21
CLASS RANK TREND-36 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 18 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BOISSPENCER DANIELSON2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CSUJAY NORVELL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7070
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5353
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCSU OFFENSEBOIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCOLORADO STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBOISE STATE DEFENSE CSU QUARTERBACKSn=626% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCOLORADO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE CSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1730% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS28% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCOLORADO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7BOISE STATE DEFENSE CSU RUNNING BACKSn=751% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS26% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555460%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECOLORADO STATE OFFENSESECONDARYBOISE STATE DEFENSE CSU PASS CATCHERSn=2153% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BOIS SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM28% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+24
−12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BOIS
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS51.2%
63.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS70.6%
69.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CSU, ORANGE = BOIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE