SAT 20:00 ET|NIPPERT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/U56.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
26
12-2
50
86
84
87%
56
84
29.5
-142
-2.5
HOME
14
7-6
47
98
52
79%
5
—
27.0
+120
+2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALBYU26—CIN14
CLOSED BYU -2.5TOTAL 56.5BYU COVERED · 40 POINTS · UNDER
BYU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CIN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=60
MARKET
TOTAL56.5
SPREADBYU -2.5
IMPLIED — BYU29.5
IMPLIED — CIN27.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT14 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 14 positions on a 60-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
BYURECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.1-2.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.9
BYU won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CINRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.9
CINCINNATI won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBYUCINCINNATI2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jake RetzlaffPORTAL · TULANE · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL73%Tyler BattyDE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn NelsonDT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBlake MangelsonDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE68%Mata'ava Ta'aseTE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarius LassiterWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeelan MarionPORTAL · MIAMI · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB52%Jakob RobinsonCB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarque CollinsCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCrew WakleyPORTAL · PURDUE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL46%Caleb EtienneOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrayden KeimOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor PayOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB36%Hinckley RopatiRB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMiles DavisPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPokaiaua HaungaRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB29%Harrison TaggartPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAisea MoaPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBear Bachmeier · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDNolan Keeney · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLKeanu Tanuvasa · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHJustin Kirkland · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATETausili Akana · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TECarsen Ryan · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHLamason Waller III · SIGNEE ★3Jackson Doman · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
OLAndrew Gentry · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGANKyle Sfarcioc · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN UTAHAlai Kalaniuvalu · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBKingston Keanaaina · SIGNEE ★3Cale Breslin · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBNusi Taumoepeau · SIGNEE ★3Taani Makasini · SIGNEE ★3Tyler Payne · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BYU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.062 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.163 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
46.861 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB777745053 OF 5 GRADED
RB8282618596 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE727253532217 OF 22 GRADED
OL676739721914 OF 19 GRADED
DL616158572317 OF 23 GRADED
LB65656593128 OF 12 GRADED
DB646458922018 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE50th50
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%56
RECRUITING CLASS#55 · 2/24 BC59
CLASS RANK TREND+11 · 3 CYCLES72
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 13 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 10th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CINSCOTT SATTERFIELD3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BYUKALANI SITAKE10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBYU OFFENSECIN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBYU OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECINCINNATI DEFENSE BYU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS46% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBYU OFFENSEFRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE BYU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1928% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-7n=38 · 2 ROOMS36% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBYU OFFENSEFRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE BYU RUNNING BACKSn=915% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 38 PLAYERS33% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553942%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBYU OFFENSESECONDARYCINCINNATI DEFENSE BYU PASS CATCHERSn=2247% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM55% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−38
−12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.5%
55.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS56.5%
63.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.7%
2.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BYU, ORANGE = CIN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE