SAT 22:30 ET|CEFCU STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/U46.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
41
9-4
35
17
64
17%
41
—
24.8
-175
-3.5
HOME
14
3-9
21
53
16
59%
51
—
21.3
+150
+3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALFRES41—SJSU14
CLOSED FRES -3.5TOTAL 46.0FRES COVERED · 55 POINTS · OVER
FRES
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
SJSU
FRES
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SJSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 14 FIELD n=67
MARKET
TOTAL46.0
SPREADFRES -3.5
IMPLIED — FRES24.8
IMPLIED — SJSU21.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
48FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT22 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 22 positions on a 67-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
FRESRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.9-4.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
FRESNO STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SJSURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.3-8.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
SAN JOSÉ STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFRESNO STATESAN JOSÉ STATE2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB98%Tuasivi NomuraLB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi LangleyLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPhoenix JacksonPORTAL · BAYLOR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB98%Mikey KeeneQB · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoshua WoodPORTAL · IDAHO · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE69%Mac DalenaWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen MossPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRaylen SharpePORTAL · ARKANSAS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL66%Braylen NelsonOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOsmar VelezOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMose VavaoOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL60%Devo BridgesDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavriel LightfootDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKavika BaumgartnerDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB49%Dean ClarkDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam LockridgeDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJulian NealPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB20%Malik SherrodPORTAL · BOISE STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBK'Vion Thunderbird · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATELucas Blumling · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBE.J. Warner · PORTAL ★3 · RICECarson Conklin · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEBrayden Turner · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEJahlil McClain · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEEzekiel Avit · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDJosiah Ayon · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN COLORADO3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLMarquise Thorpe-Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAMalcolm Polu Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Jonah Leaupepetele · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLFinn Claypool · PORTAL ★3 · DRAKEMartin Owusu · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAREFILLED
DBSammie Hunter · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHDaJhon Hall · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBRayshon Luke · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAJulius Gillick · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FRESNO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
36.139 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
32.431 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
37.944 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB363645052 OF 5 GRADED
RB4949325688 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE353547712315 OF 23 GRADED
OL474734632012 OF 20 GRADED
DL535346701815 OF 18 GRADED
LB5151227118 OF 11 GRADED
DB616147692116 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE35th35
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%11
RECRUITING CLASS#103 · 0/16 BC23
CLASS RANK TREND-20 · 3 CYCLES10
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 21 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SJSUKEN NIUMATALOLO2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2929
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FRESMATT ENTZFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFRES OFFENSESJSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFRESNO STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE FRES QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 43 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFRESNO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7SAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE FRES OFFENSIVE LINEn=2037% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU FRONT-7n=25 · 2 ROOMS34% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFRESNO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7SAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE FRES RUNNING BACKSn=844% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 25 PLAYERS31% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552644%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4523100%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFRESNO STATE OFFENSESECONDARYSAN JOSÉ STATE DEFENSE FRES PASS CATCHERSn=2329% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SJSU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM29% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FRES
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SJSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−17
+7
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FRES
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SJSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FRES
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SJSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.9%
45.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS70.3%
76.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
1.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FRES, ORANGE = SJSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE