THU 21:00 ET|CAMP RANDALL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP43|O/U40.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
0
7-7
37
10
31
48%
10
17
11.5
+700
+17.5
HOME
17
4-8
80
29
81
40%
1
97
29.0
-1100
-17.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALM-OH0—WIS17
CLOSED WIS -17.5TOTAL 40.5M-OH COVERED · 17 POINTS · UNDER
M-OH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
WIS
M-OH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
WIS
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL40.5
SPREADWIS -17.5
IMPLIED — M-OH11.5
IMPLIED — WIS29.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
26FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
M-OHRECORD MATCHES
7-6ACTUALvs7.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.1
MIAMI (OH) won 7 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WISRECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-8.8
WISCONSIN won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIAMI (OH)WISCONSIN2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB95%Brett GabbertQB · 95% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB89%Keyon MozeeRB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin DavisRB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan DowningRB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE87%Javon TracyPORTAL · MINNESOTA · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReggie VirgilPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCade McDonaldWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL87%Reid HolskeyOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn YoungOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill JadosPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL72%Brian UgwuDL · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSavio FrazierDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKobe HiltonDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB47%Matt SalopekLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTy WiseLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB34%Raion StraderPORTAL · AUBURN · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmbe' CaldwellDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWilliam HardrickDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDequan Finn · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORNoah Ehrlich · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TEKeith Reynolds · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONDarion Williamson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEDeion Colzie · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAME4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLAustin Uke · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDLucas Barnes · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLBai Jobe · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASJames Schott · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEKam Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATI6 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBKoy Beasley · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEJerome Smith · SIGNEE ★3Desmon Yharbrough · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIAMI (OH)
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.843 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
13.16 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.065 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4343472753 OF 5 GRADED
RB4747477344 OF 4 GRADED
WR/TE393948632514 OF 25 GRADED
OL313129771612 OF 16 GRADED
DL454531592216 OF 22 GRADED
LB636353951514 OF 15 GRADED
DB444449771917 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE37th37
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%30
RECRUITING CLASS#83 · 0/21 BC38
CLASS RANK TREND+22 · 3 CYCLES94
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 16 IN / 12 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 10th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WISLUKE FICKELL3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2525
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
M-OHCHUCK MARTIN10TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESM-OH OFFENSEWIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEWISCONSIN DEFENSE M-OH QUARTERBACKSn=573% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS52% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFRONT-7WISCONSIN DEFENSE M-OH OFFENSIVE LINEn=1623% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS47% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFRONT-7WISCONSIN DEFENSE M-OH RUNNING BACKSn=427% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS47% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557355%8%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457651%36%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIAMI (OH) OFFENSESECONDARYWISCONSIN DEFENSE M-OH PASS CATCHERSn=2537% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM55% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−3
+42
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.9%
61.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS53.2%
50.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
1.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = M-OH, ORANGE = WIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE