THU 21:00 ET|GEHA FIELD AT ARROWHEAD STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP39|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
7-6
86
73
73
59%
24
67
29.5
-270
-6.5
HOME
17
7-6
47
98
52
79%
5
66
23.0
+220
+6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALNEB20—CIN17
CLOSED NEB -6.5TOTAL 52.5CIN COVERED · 37 POINTS · UNDER
NEB
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CIN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=44
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADNEB -6.5
IMPLIED — NEB29.5
IMPLIED — CIN23.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
50FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
NEBRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.3
NEBRASKA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CINRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.9
CINCINNATI won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEBRASKACINCINNATI2025 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB77%John BullockLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMJ ShermanLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMikai GbayorPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL70%Ty RobinsonDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNash HutmacherDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJimari ButlerPORTAL · LSU · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE70%Thomas Fidone IIDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJahmal BanksWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah NeyorWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB53%Dante DowdellPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRahmir JohnsonRB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL46%Bryce BenhartOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBen ScottOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMicah MazzccuaOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB27%Isaac GiffordDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTommi HillCB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBDasan McCullough · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMADawson Merritt · SIGNEE ★4Christian Jones · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLWilliams Nwaneri · PORTAL ★4 · MISSOURIMalcolm Simpson · SIGNEE ★4Kade Pietrzak · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEDane Key · PORTAL ★4 · KENTUCKYNyziah Hunter · PORTAL ★4 · CALIFORNIACortez Mills Jr. · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBJamarion Parker · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLElijah Pritchett · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMARocco Spindler · PORTAL ★4 · NOTRE DAMEJuju Marks · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBAndrew Marshall · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHOBryson Webber · SIGNEE ★4Caden VerMaas · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEBRASKA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
49.865 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
53.676 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.362 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3838966763 OF 6 GRADED
RB7070548897 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE565688602118 OF 21 GRADED
OL545477632217 OF 22 GRADED
DL515184672017 OF 20 GRADED
LB565674601412 OF 14 GRADED
DB616171632621 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE86th86
BLUE-CHIP RATIO39%83
RECRUITING CLASS#22 · 12/20 BC84
CLASS RANK TREND+3 · 3 CYCLES56
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+4 · 15 IN / 40 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CINSCOTT SATTERFIELD3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NEBMATT RHULE3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4545
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNEB OFFENSECIN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEBRASKA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECINCINNATI DEFENSE NEB QUARTERBACKSn=633% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS46% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEBRASKA OFFENSEFRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE NEB OFFENSIVE LINEn=2237% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-7n=38 · 2 ROOMS36% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEBRASKA OFFENSEFRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE NEB RUNNING BACKSn=912% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 38 PLAYERS33% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553942%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEBRASKA OFFENSESECONDARYCINCINNATI DEFENSE NEB PASS CATCHERSn=2140% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM55% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+20
−12
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NEB
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.6%
55.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.0%
63.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.6%
2.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NEB, ORANGE = CIN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2025, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE