SAT 15:30 ET|NILTON SANTOS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/U50.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
8
1-2
77
89
43
60%
48
52
23.3
+125
+4.0
HOME
34
2-1
62
50
73
10%
56
54
27.3
-145
-4.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALNCSU8—UVA34
CLOSED UVA -4.0TOTAL 50.5UVA COVERED · 42 POINTS · UNDER
NCSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UVA
NCSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UVA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=8
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADUVA -4.0
IMPLIED — NCSU23.3
IMPLIED — UVA27.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 6-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 8 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NCSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.3
NC STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UVARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs9.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.6
VIRGINIA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNC STATEVIRGINIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB90%Caden FordhamLB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCian SloneLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTra ThomasLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE82%Justin JolyDRAFTED · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah RogersWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerrell AndersonWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL78%Sabastian HarshDE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenny Soares Jr.PORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon ClevelandDRAFTED · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB61%Hollywood SmothersPORTAL · TEXAS · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL54%Jalen GrantOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacarrius PeakOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony Carter Jr.G · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB28%Devon MarshallCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamel JohnsonCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB2%Lex ThomasPORTAL · WESTERN CAROLINA · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBRaul Aguirre Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIPopo Aguirre · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIZiggy Moore · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEHunter Provience · PORTAL ★3 · MONTANA STATEJoshisa Trader · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIAmiri Acker · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDamaad Lewis · SIGNEE ★3Elijah Satchell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBDylan McCoy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrody Smith · SIGNEE ★3Tre Aiken · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBKing Mack · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEOndre Evans · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIAJordyn Best · SIGNEE ★35 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NC STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.843 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
34.443 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.749 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB64648510052 OF 5 GRADED
RB6262745994 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE555564412611 OF 26 GRADED
OL66666766239 OF 23 GRADED
DL47476970106 OF 10 GRADED
LB46466748248 OF 24 GRADED
DB50507567239 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%78
RECRUITING CLASS#49 · 2/26 BC64
CLASS RANK TREND-22 · 3 CYCLES6
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-6 · 20 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UVATONY ELLIOTT5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NCSUDAVE DOEREN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNCSU OFFENSEUVA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNC STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEVIRGINIA DEFENSE NCSU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS53% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNC STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE NCSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2334% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS33% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNC STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE NCSU RUNNING BACKSn=941% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS31% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556349%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENC STATE OFFENSESECONDARYVIRGINIA DEFENSE NCSU PASS CATCHERSn=2659% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM69% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+6
−18
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.0%
67.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.6%
48.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.6%
2.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NCSU, ORANGE = UVA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE