SAT 19:00 ET|DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP83|O/U53.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
1-2
2
8
41
24%
38
10
11.3
+2800
+31.0
HOME
34
1-1
85
96
58
40%
54
93
42.3
-100000
-31.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALNMSU17—FSU34
CLOSED FSU -31.0TOTAL 53.5NMSU COVERED · 51 POINTS · UNDER
NMSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
FSU
NMSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=8
MARKET
TOTAL53.5
SPREADFSU -31.0
IMPLIED — NMSU11.3
IMPLIED — FSU42.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
52FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 6-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 8 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
NMSURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.0
NEW MEXICO STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FSURECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-3.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.0
FLORIDA STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNEW MEXICO STATEFLORIDA STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL83%Malik WilliamsOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBJ ToloOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArmando NievesOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB79%Logan FifeQB · 78% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE71%Gavin HarrisPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonovan FaupelPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPJ Johnson IIIWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL57%Jamall Thompson Jr.DE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTa'Avili TuitamaPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEzra ChristensenDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB47%Naeten MitchellPORTAL · COLORADO · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZedekiah Rodriguez-BrownCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStilton McKelveyPORTAL · BAYLOR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB46%Kadarius CallowayRB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB28%Quincy DavisPORTAL · KANSAS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler MartinezPORTAL · COLORADO · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLArmond Owens · PORTAL ★3 · GRAMBLINGTyler Keinath · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATEJames Williams · PORTAL ★3 · UTEP2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TELyndon Ravare · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATECarson Su'esu'e · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEDevin Ellison · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJordan-Lebron Downey · PORTAL ★3 · LIVINGSTONEVic Shaw · PORTAL ★3 · UTSAKaian Roberts-Day · PORTAL ★3 · UTSA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJavon Gillespie · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TEXAS A&MTayden Barnes · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIAmaurey Brooks · PORTAL ★3 · FORDHAM2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJames Jones · PORTAL ★3 · DELAWARE STATETJ Washington Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · IOWAXavier Rucker · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBJaylyn Manning · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NEW MEXICO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
43.964 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
29.931 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
52.479 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB292927452 OF 5 GRADED
RB3838483785 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE444453522210 OF 22 GRADED
OL35353025177 OF 17 GRADED
DL393928761912 OF 19 GRADED
LB3030308396 OF 9 GRADED
DB444418682013 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE2nd2
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%27
RECRUITING CLASS#136 · 0/6 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-2 · 3 CYCLES46
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 25 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FSUMIKE NORVELL7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NMSUTONY SANCHEZ3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNMSU OFFENSEFSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE NMSU QUARTERBACKSn=596% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS44% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE NMSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1775% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS45% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE NMSU RUNNING BACKSn=863% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS46% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555766%35%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455839%14%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENEW MEXICO STATE OFFENSESECONDARYFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE NMSU PASS CATCHERSn=2248% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM43% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+7
+16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NMSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.4%
71.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.9%
66.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.7%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NMSU, ORANGE = FSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE