SAT 15:30 ET|AUTZEN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP52|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
27
1-1
47
39
59
66%
77
44
14.0
+1300
+24.5
HOME
34
1-1
99
90
94
75%
35
91
38.5
-2800
-24.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALBOIS27—ORE34
CLOSED ORE -24.5TOTAL 52.5BOIS COVERED · 61 POINTS · OVER
BOIS
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ORE
BOIS
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ORE
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADORE -24.5
IMPLIED — BOIS14.0
IMPLIED — ORE38.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
42FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BOISRECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs8.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.4
BOISE STATE won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORERECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs10.8-1.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.3
OREGON won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOISE STATEOREGON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB68%Ty BenefieldPORTAL · LSU · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah EarbyDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion WashingtonDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE61%Matt LauterTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLatrell CaplesWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChris MarshallPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL61%Braxton FelyDL · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDion WashingtonDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalakai WilliamsEDGE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL50%Kage CaseyDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason RandolphOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach HolmesOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB29%Malik SherrodRB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB22%Marco NotarainniLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBCam Jamerson · PORTAL ★3 · TCURoman Tillmon · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTADavin Hill · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TERasean Jones · SIGNEE ★3Keawe Browne · SIGNEE ★3Ryan Brekke · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLCorey Webb Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Gustaf Henriks Ras · SIGNEE ★3Paz St. John · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLKole Cronin · SIGNEE ★3Hakeim Smalls · SIGNEE ★3Connor LaGrow · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJuelz Goff · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHKeilan Chavies · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBRocky Dunn · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOISE STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.082 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.677 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.871 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB45453710041 OF 4 GRADED
RB57577310072 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE454550592411 OF 24 GRADED
OL59593980206 OF 20 GRADED
DL50503947115 OF 11 GRADED
LB43433586209 OF 20 GRADED
DB51515364218 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE47th47
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%21
RECRUITING CLASS#51 · 1/28 BC62
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 11 IN / 19 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OREDAN LANNING5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BOISSPENCER DANIELSON3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBOIS OFFENSEORE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOISE STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOREGON DEFENSE BOIS QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOISE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE BOIS OFFENSIVE LINEn=2020% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS3% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOISE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON DEFENSE BOIS RUNNING BACKSn=70% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS2% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555696%56%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4554100%37%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOISE STATE OFFENSESECONDARYOREGON DEFENSE BOIS PASS CATCHERSn=2441% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORE SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BOIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−20
−6
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BOIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BOIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORE
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS68.0%
49.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS68.3%
76.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BOIS, ORANGE = ORE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE