SAT 15:30 ET|BEAVER STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP52|O/U52.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
0
1-1
30
19
25
99%
13
7
14.5
+1100
+23.0
HOME
45
2-0
82
78
79
8%
65
53
37.5
-3500
-23.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALMRSH0—PSU45
CLOSED PSU -23.0TOTAL 52.0PSU COVERED · 45 POINTS · UNDER
MRSH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
PSU
MRSH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
PSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL52.0
SPREADPSU -23.0
IMPLIED — MRSH14.5
IMPLIED — PSU37.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
52FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
MRSHRECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.1-5.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.5
MARSHALL won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PSURECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.3
PENN STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMARSHALLPENN STATE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL78%Paul Hutson IIIPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamaal Whyce Jr.PORTAL · BAYLOR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNaquan CrowderPORTAL · MINNESOTA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB75%Antwan Roberts Jr.PORTAL · ARIZONA · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael AllenPORTAL · EAST CAROLINA · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin Williams-ThomasPORTAL · MASSACHUSETTS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL67%Shunmarkus AdamsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric MeeksOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian RichterOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB58%Jibreel Al-AminLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKerion MartinLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayland ParkerLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Cam SmithS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarvae MyersDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrell SweetingPORTAL · UAB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE26%Demarcus LaceyWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB6%JacQai LongQB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLKeydel Painter · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA UNIONTerry Nwabuisi-Ezeala · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTCole Funderburk · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FOREST2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJamarion Wilcox · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYJosiah McLaurin · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLANDTJ Lester · PORTAL ★3 · WEST GEORGIAREFILLED
OLRobby Martin · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAJaquez Joiner · PORTAL ★3 · UCFLogan Greer · PORTAL ★3 · PENNWEST CALIFORNIA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBAndre Parker · SIGNEE ★3Zeke Gunn · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBBrayden Hall · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL CONNECTICUTTerrente Hinton · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEJaycee Houston · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEChristian Hamilton · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAChris Culliver · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINABrennan Chambers · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MARSHALL
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.961 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.973 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
39.547 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB69694110052 OF 5 GRADED
RB3232557044 OF 4 GRADED
WR/TE47471872209 OF 20 GRADED
OL555533402111 OF 21 GRADED
DL525244221710 OF 17 GRADED
LB51515382106 OF 10 GRADED
DB444441362214 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE30th30
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%31
RECRUITING CLASS#123 · 0/17 BC8
CLASS RANK TREND-20 · 3 CYCLES10
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 27 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PSUMATT CAMPBELLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3636
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MRSHTONY GIBSON2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1313
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMRSH OFFENSEPSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMARSHALL OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEPENN STATE DEFENSE MRSH QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS60% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMARSHALL OFFENSEFRONT-7PENN STATE DEFENSE MRSH OFFENSIVE LINEn=2160% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS60% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMARSHALL OFFENSEFRONT-7PENN STATE DEFENSE MRSH RUNNING BACKSn=430% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS60% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556340%40%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456140%25%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMARSHALL OFFENSESECONDARYPENN STATE DEFENSE MRSH PASS CATCHERSn=2028% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PSU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM61% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−1
+7
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MRSH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.7%
67.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.9%
69.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
5.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MRSH, ORANGE = PSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE