SAT 12:00 ET|BRYANT-DENNY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP58|O/U52.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
0-2
40
57
67
14%
16
21
12.5
+1800
+27.5
HOME
48
2-0
98
77
85
26%
75
96
40.0
-5000
-27.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALECU10—ALA48
CLOSED ALA -27.5TOTAL 52.5ALA COVERED · 58 POINTS · OVER
ECU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ALA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL52.5
SPREADALA -27.5
IMPLIED — ECU12.5
IMPLIED — ALA40.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ECURECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.2-2.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.2
EAST CAROLINA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ALARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.4-2.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+13.8
ALABAMA won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEREAST CAROLINAALABAMA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Katin HouserPORTAL · ILLINOIS · 92% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChaston DittaPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB85%London MontgomeryPORTAL · FLORIDA · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarlon Gunn Jr.RB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker JenkinsPORTAL · LAMAR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB78%Ja'Marley RiddlePORTAL · GEORGIA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTeagan WilkDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyMir BrownDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE77%Anthony SmithDRAFTED · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDesirrio RilesPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONYannick SmithPORTAL · SMU · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL70%Darius BellOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJimarion McCrimonOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCooper TrnavskyOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL54%J.D. LampleyDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSamuel DankahDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZion WilsonDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB49%Dameon WilsonLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyheem CraigLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBEmory Williams · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMITrey Burke · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBAshton Gray · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASMeliq McGowan · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBChristian Peterson · PORTAL ★3 · UCFMyles Pollard · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISDavid Coleman Jr. · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TERay Ray Joseph · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIJeremiah Melvin · PORTAL ★3 · WAKE FORESTDawson Quarterman · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLBrandon Best · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATEJa'Vaughn Hargett · SIGNEE ★3Joshua Battle · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLTerande Spencer · SIGNEE ★3Ethan Wilson · SIGNEE ★3Kelton Smith · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBCrews Law · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISChad Fairchild · SIGNEE ★3Zyon Ratchford · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · EAST CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
26.517 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
10.15 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.341 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB575770052 OF 5 GRADED
RB5050781573 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE64644819239 OF 23 GRADED
OL61613326237 OF 23 GRADED
DL6464461001711 OF 17 GRADED
LB48483966126 OF 12 GRADED
DB585846362616 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE40th40
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%17
RECRUITING CLASS#94 · 0/16 BC30
CLASS RANK TREND-21 · 3 CYCLES8
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 24 IN / 26 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ALAKALEN DEBOER3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ECUBLAKE HARRELL2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6363
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9090
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESECU OFFENSEALA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBEAST CAROLINA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEALABAMA DEFENSE ECU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS27% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLEAST CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE ECU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2374% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS48% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBEAST CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE ECU RUNNING BACKSn=785% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS47% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556446%60%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456560%59%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEEAST CAROLINA OFFENSESECONDARYALABAMA DEFENSE ECU PASS CATCHERSn=2381% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM10% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ECU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−3
+8
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ECU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ECU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.4%
66.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS76.5%
65.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.7%
5.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ECU, ORANGE = ALA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE