SAT 19:45 ET|BEN HILL GRIFFIN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP64|O/U59.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
2-1
29
49
18
68%
96
31
16.5
+1300
+26.5
HOME
66
3-0
93
67
83
69%
64
98
43.0
-6500
-26.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALFAU21—FLA66
CLOSED FLA -26.5TOTAL 59.5FLA COVERED · 87 POINTS · OVER
FAU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FLA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL59.5
SPREADFLA -26.5
IMPLIED — FAU16.5
IMPLIED — FLA43.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
FAURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.8
FLORIDA ATLANTIC won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FLARECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-2.4
FLORIDA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA ATLANTICFLORIDA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB62%Gemari SandsRB · 42% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier TerrellPORTAL · NORTHERN IOWA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL57%Scarlee JeanOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex AtcavageOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaughtry RichardsonOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE57%Jayshon PlattWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAsaad WaseemPORTAL · PURDUE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael KirchTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB44%Chris Keys Jr.S · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerez ReidDB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDillion WilliamsS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL35%Bryce LangstonDT · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric Brantley Jr.PORTAL · MERCER · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB29%Tyler StolskyPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB9%Zach GibsonQB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBBrady Tillman III · PORTAL ★3 · EDWARD WATERSLeonard Farrow · PORTAL ★3 · FAIRMONT STATEREFILLED
OLBenjamin Galloway · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHAlejandro Schmitt · SIGNEE ★3Aedyn Buchanan · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TERJ Garcia II · PORTAL ★3 · BOWLING GREENMarcus Vinson · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOJahmari Powell-Wonson · PORTAL ★3 · MARYLAND4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJK Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEBo Simpson-Nealy · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINAAmar Reynolds · PORTAL ★3 · ILLINOIS4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLKenyon Garner · PORTAL ★3 · LIVINGSTONEJonathan Bax · PORTAL ★3 · TCUREFILLED
LBJoseph Sipp Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASREFILLED
QBDrew Devillier · PORTAL ★3 · RICEJeremiah Daoud · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.086 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
43.158 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
60.292 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB57571710051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5151366174 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE48483450218 OF 21 GRADED
OL54543760215 OF 21 GRADED
DL44445979127 OF 12 GRADED
LB34343650104 OF 10 GRADED
DB515145543315 OF 33 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE29th29
BLUE-CHIP RATIO5%26
RECRUITING CLASS#130 · 0/11 BC3
CLASS RANK TREND-51 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 22 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FLAJON SUMRALLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FAUZACH KITTLEY2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
100100
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFAU OFFENSEFLA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFLORIDA DEFENSE FAU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FLA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS25% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA DEFENSE FAU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2140% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FLA FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS8% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA DEFENSE FAU RUNNING BACKSn=739% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FLA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS8% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556088%53%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455998%33%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSESECONDARYFLORIDA DEFENSE FAU PASS CATCHERSn=2150% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FLA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM39% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FLA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+8
+5
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FLA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FLA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS49.1%
66.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.7%
61.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.4%
8.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FAU, ORANGE = FLA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE