SAT 19:30 ET|TIGER STADIUM (LA)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/U50.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
2-1
89
58
78
41%
28
63
20.0
+350
+10.0
HOME
51
2-1
95
44
93
21%
100
91
30.0
-480
-10.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALCLEM10—LSU51
CLOSED LSU -10.0TOTAL 50.0LSU COVERED · 61 POINTS · OVER
CLEM
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
LSU
CLEM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
LSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL50.0
SPREADLSU -10.0
IMPLIED — CLEM20.0
IMPLIED — LSU30.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
46FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
CLEMRECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs1.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.0
CLEMSON won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 1.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LSURECORD MATCHES
2-1ACTUALvs2.6-0.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+21.3
LSU won 2 of 3 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCLEMSONLSU2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB83%Cade KlubnikDRAFTED · 83% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB73%Adam RandallDRAFTED · 70% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL64%Peter WoodsDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONT.J. ParkerDRAFTED · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeMonte CapehartDRAFTED · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL57%Blake MillerDRAFTED · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan LinthicumC · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTristan LeighOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Ricardo JonesPORTAL · VANDERBILT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAvieon TerrellDRAFTED · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhalil BarnesPORTAL · GEORGIA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB37%Wade WoodazDRAFTED · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE26%Antonio WilliamsDRAFTED · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh SappTE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTait Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3Brock Bradley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBChris Johnson Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SMUREFILLED
DLMarkus Strong · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMALondon Merritt · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADODevarrick Woods · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLChance Barclay · SIGNEE ★4Leo Delaney · SIGNEE ★4Grant Wise · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBDonovan Starr · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNElliot Washington II · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEPolo Anderson · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBBrayden Reilly · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TENaeem Burroughs · SIGNEE ★4Gordon Sellars III · SIGNEE ★4Connor Salmin · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CLEMSON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.781 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.486 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.364 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7171916162 OF 6 GRADED
RB5353897274 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE62629398268 OF 26 GRADED
OL61618980216 OF 21 GRADED
DL575788562312 OF 23 GRADED
LB585879100125 OF 12 GRADED
DB565672562011 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE89th89
BLUE-CHIP RATIO52%89
RECRUITING CLASS#20 · 10/22 BC86
CLASS RANK TREND-9 · 3 CYCLES32
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 11 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LSULANE KIFFINFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6868
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CLEMDABO SWINNEY11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8282
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1717
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCLEM OFFENSELSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCLEMSON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSELSU DEFENSE CLEM QUARTERBACKSn=639% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCLEMSON OFFENSEFRONT-7LSU DEFENSE CLEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=2120% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS57% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCLEMSON OFFENSEFRONT-7LSU DEFENSE CLEM RUNNING BACKSn=728% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS54% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556525%79%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456671%82%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECLEMSON OFFENSESECONDARYLSU DEFENSE CLEM PASS CATCHERSn=262% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+17
0
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.9%
63.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.0%
59.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.2%
3.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CLEM, ORANGE = LSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE