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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 1›UTEP @ OU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SMU @ FSU71
UNT @ IU69
BC @ CIN68
CLEM @ LSU68
LIB @ JMU66
BOIS @ ORE66
MOST @ TA&M64
UNLV @ HAW64
BALL @ OSU63
MIA @ STAN62
BAY @ AUB61
MRSH @ PSU61
SJSU @ EMU60
UTEP @ OU60
M-OH @ PITT60
WMU @ MICH60
LOU @ MISS60
WIS @ ND60
FIU @ USF59
COLO @ GT58
NIU @ IOWA58
WYO @ CSU58
FAU @ FLA58
WSU @ WASH58
OHIO @ NEB57
ULM @ MSST57
UCLA @ CAL57
TULN @ DUKE56
TOL @ MSU55
AKR @ WAKE54
FRES @ USC54
ECU @ ALA53
UAB @ ILL52
KENT @ SC51
TXST @ TEX51
ARST @ MEM50
WKU @ NEV50
MASS @ RUTG49
ORST @ HOU46
OKST @ TLSA44
CMU @ UNM43
CCU @ WVU35
SHSU @ TROY33
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
UTEP
OKLAHOMA
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
FRI 20:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (NORMAN, OK)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP62|O/U51.0COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
131FPI
UTEPMWCUTEP
0
1-2
26
2
53
-1%
0
45
5.0
—
+41.0
HOME
#24AP
14FPI
OUSECOKLAHOMA
51
2-1
88
35
100
63%
15
99
46.0
—
-41.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALUTEP0—OU51
CLOSED OU -41.0TOTAL 51.0OU COVERED · 51 POINTS · PUSH
UTEP
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
OU
0
POINTS
51
198
TOTAL YARDS
401
86 (10-18)
PASSING
231 (12-19)
112 (38)
RUSHING
170 (39)
10
FIRST DOWNS
18
2-13
THIRD DOWN
6-11
1-2
FOURTH DOWN
0-0
29:28
TIME OF POSS.
30:32
4-35
PENALTIES
3-30
2
TURNOVERS
1
1
SACKS
4
0
QB HURRIES
1
UTEP
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
OU
-0.028
SEASON 0.153
EPA / PLAY
0.449
SEASON 0.181
33.3%
SEASON 39.2%
SUCCESS RATE
57.7%
SEASON 42.6%
9.8%
SEASON 14.0%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
19.2%
SEASON 13.0%
3.88
SEASON 5.01
YARDS / PLAY
7.42
SEASON 5.73
0.449
SEASON 0.312
EPA ALLOWED
-0.028
SEASON -0.067
57.7%
SEASON 48.2%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
33.3%
SEASON 27.9%
19.2%
SEASON 14.9%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
9.8%
SEASON 10.3%
22.6%
SEASON 20.4%
STUFF RATE
25.0%
SEASON 19.6%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL51.0
SPREADOU -41.0
IMPLIED — UTEP5.0
IMPLIED — OU46.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
20FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
25 / 43
BY ENVIRONMENT
43 / 43
DISAGREEMENT18 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 18 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
UTEP PACE35.5s
0
OU PACE30.9s
15
SHARED PACE33.2s
7
PLAY VOLUME109
7
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
UTEP35CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
39
PROE
67
TEMPO
0
EXPLOSIVE39p
39
PROE67p
67
TEMPO0p
0
OU41CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
31
PROE
78
TEMPO
15
EXPLOSIVE31p
31
PROE78p
78
TEMPO15p
15
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UTEPRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.1
UTEP won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
OURECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs9.8-2.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.5
OKLAHOMA won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUTEPOKLAHOMA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Skyler LocklearPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE · 54% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi NelsonPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL95%Ivan EscobarOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMark RobinsonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames WilliamsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB83%Ashten EmoryPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHahsaun WilsonRB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarquez TaylorRB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE81%Kenny OdomPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWondame Davis Jr.WR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEric Willis IIIWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL74%KD JohnsonDT · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONUdoka EzeaniPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAshaad HallDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB68%Micah DaveyLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDonte ThompsonLB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONElijah BaldwinPORTAL · UTSA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB50%Solo BarnesS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNeil CampbellCB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMarcell BlockerCB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBEJ Colson · PORTAL ★3 · INCARNATE WORDRaymond Moore III · PORTAL ★3 · MORGAN STATEBodey Weaver · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLBrian Williams Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEJaymon Lamb · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASEddie Lartigue · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBTavorus Jones · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIPARTIAL
WR/TERoyal Capell · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEJD Wallace · SIGNEE ★3Benny Okwura · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLPreston Hickey · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERN STATECaynan James · SIGNEE ★3DAdrian Tinney-Anderson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBDonavan Howard · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA STDonavan Howard · PORTAL ★3 · VIRGINIA STATEKaleb Miles · PORTAL ★3 · EAST TEXAS A&M5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTEP
CARRIED COMPOSITE
26.818 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
7.53 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
37.344 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB474752052 OF 5 GRADED
RB3535285887 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE484846332111 OF 21 GRADED
OL41412902012 OF 20 GRADED
DL515141502114 OF 21 GRADED
LB5252237597 OF 9 GRADED
DB464644432216 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE26th26
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%24
RECRUITING CLASS#92 · 0/26 BC32
CLASS RANK TREND-9 · 3 CYCLES32
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 21 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
OUBRENT VENABLES5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6161
PACE
7777
PASS RATE
4040
EXPLOSIVENESS
3838
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2727
HAVOC
9696
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UTEPSCOTTY WALDEN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
PACE
3939
PASS RATE
6868
EXPLOSIVENESS
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7373
HAVOC
7171
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUTEP OFFENSEOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUTEP OFFENSE
NATIONAL
90OF 138
TAL
52
PERF
47
RET
0
NATIONAL
2OF 136
RET
34
FULL DEFENSEOKLAHOMA DEFENSE
UTEP QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
RAYMOND MOORE IIIQBPORTAL · MORGAN STATE
502ND YR1428★3—
EJ COLSON JR.QBTRUE FR
492ND YR3564★3-51
CHAD WARNERQBRET
351ST YR—49★3—
BODEY WEAVERQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—52★3—
BRAESEN LEONQBTRUE FR
302ND YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS23% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
8474%47%
LINEBACKERSLB
8775%33%
SECONDARYDB
5779%61%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUTEP OFFENSE
NATIONAL
103OF 138
TAL
29
PERF
41
RET
0
DL
1OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
1OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7OKLAHOMA DEFENSE
UTEP OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JUAN CAMACHO JR.OLRET
524TH YR——UNR—
JAYMON LAMBOLPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS
523RD YR2728★3—
BRIAN WILLIAMS JR.OLPORTAL · JACKSON STATE
502ND YR3128★3—
TYLER ROBERTSOLRET
491ST YR5530★3—
OMORUYI ALIU-OTOKITIOLPORTAL · LIVINGSTONE
483RD YR249★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DAVID STONEDLRET
893RD YR75100★4-10
TAYLOR WEINDLRET
723RD YR7679★3+46
OWEN HEINECKELBRET
714TH YR74—UNR+19
KIP LEWISLBRET
694TH YR9790★4+27
JAYDEN JACKSONDLRET
693RD YR8289★4-27
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUTEP OFFENSE
NATIONAL
126OF 138
TAL
28
PERF
35
RET
58
DL
1OF 138
DL RET
74
LB
1OF 138
LB RET
75
FRONT-7OKLAHOMA DEFENSE
UTEP RUNNING BACKSn=842% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TAVORUS JONESRBPORTAL · MISSOURI
493RD YR4264★3-39
LAMAR SPERLINGRBPORTAL · BUFFALO
483RD YR6017★3-10
ELIJAH MCCOYRBRET
472ND YR3260★3-61
KAM THOMASRBRET
454TH YR429★3+14
KAM THOMASRBRET
454TH YR429★3+14
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558474%47%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.458775%33%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUTEP OFFENSE
NATIONAL
79OF 138
TAL
46
PERF
48
RET
33
DB
40OF 138
DB RET
79
SECONDARYOKLAHOMA DEFENSE
UTEP PASS CATCHERSn=2167% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
CASH CHEEKSTERET
523RD YR14—UNR—
JACKSON STONERTETRUE FR
521ST YR840★3—
NIK HENRYWRRET
492ND YR1549★3—
CARVER CHEEKSWRTRUE FR
494TH YR2045★3—
JADEN SMITHWRRET
474TH YR5678★3-18
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
OU SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM21% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ELI BOWENDBRET
673RD YR9199★5+4
MICHAEL BOGANOWSKIDBRET
583RD YR6284★4+22
REGGIE POWERS IIIDBRET
583RD YR6593★4-15
PEYTON BOWENDBRET
514TH YR9799★5+3
MARKEL FORDDBTRUE FR
511ST YR2276★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UTEP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
38.9
52.0
— OFFENSE
48.5
58.0
— DEFENSE
29.4
46.0
SP+ OVERALL
-16.2
19.2
FPI
-18.3
16.7
ELO
1130
1782
TALENT
586
851
PRODUCTION
8
93
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
−1
−3
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.04
0.54
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UTEP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OU
OFF EFFICIENCY
1
28
DEF EFFICIENCY
70
99
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
97
53
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
64
17
FINISHING DRIVES
49
56
FIELD POSITION
61
17
TURNOVER MARGIN
1
33
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UTEP
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
OU
PASS RATE
40.1%
46.3%
PACE
35.5s
30.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
61.2%
62.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
42.9%
66.7%
PLAYS / GAME
50.7
58.3
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
5.9%
3.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UTEP, ORANGE = OU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE