SAT 15:30 ET|DKR-TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP58|O/U60.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
7
0-2
41
75
14
76%
79
46
15.5
+2500
+29.5
HOME
59
2-0
99
62
81
72%
84
97
45.0
-9000
-29.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTXST7—TEX59
CLOSED TEX -29.5TOTAL 60.5TEX COVERED · 66 POINTS · OVER
TXST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TEX
TXST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TEX
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL60.5
SPREADTEX -29.5
IMPLIED — TXST15.5
IMPLIED — TEX45.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
65FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TXSTRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.5
TEXAS STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEXRECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.8
TEXAS won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEXAS STATETEXAS2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB88%Lincoln PareRB · 62% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGreg BurrellPORTAL · CONCORD · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL68%Emeka ObigboOL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDorion StrawnOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrock RikerOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL63%Kalil AlexanderDE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKamren WashingtonPORTAL · BAYLOR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenard SnyderDE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%Bobby CrosbyS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhamari TerrellPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaden RiosCB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE25%Titus LyonsTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMavin AndersonWR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB17%Michael Boudoin IIILB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChantz JohnsonPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB1%Keldric LusterPORTAL · BALL STATE · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBJuntavious Harris · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLRasheed Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · TCUWilliam Boone · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINAJaylen Early · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLPhillip Bradford · PORTAL ★3 · MCNEESEJason Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS SOUTHERNChancellor Owens · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMichael Patterson · PORTAL ★3 · STEPHEN F. AUSTINDexter Ricks Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · LIBERTYJayden Flournoy · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEDavian Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEZechariah Sample · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEXavier Warren · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJavante Mackey · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSAS STATEDarius Davis · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBShaker Reisig · PORTAL ★3 · BOSTON COLLEGEEaston Webb · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEXAS STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
48.175 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
42.758 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.074 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5252307652 OF 5 GRADED
RB5353525166 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE464634791911 OF 19 GRADED
OL595945402012 OF 20 GRADED
DL484851542514 OF 25 GRADED
LB40404971108 OF 10 GRADED
DB484835651713 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE41st41
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%23
RECRUITING CLASS#74 · 0/16 BC45
CLASS RANK TREND+22 · 3 CYCLES94
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 17 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TXSTG.J. KINNE4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTXST OFFENSETEX OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEXAS STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETEXAS DEFENSE TXST QUARTERBACKSn=524% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEXAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE TXST OFFENSIVE LINEn=2060% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS40% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEXAS STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE TXST RUNNING BACKSn=649% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS42% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556283%68%LINEBACKERSLB
0.457326%27%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEXAS STATE OFFENSESECONDARYTEXAS DEFENSE TXST PASS CATCHERSn=1921% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−8
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TXST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS68.1%
59.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS72.4%
68.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE5.6%
2.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TXST, ORANGE = TEX) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE