SAT 12:00 ET|MILAN PUSKAR STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP41|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
1-2
24
32
23
15%
33
20
16.8
-100000
+21.0
HOME
31
3-0
65
21
61
14%
66
84
37.8
-1725
-21.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALCCU24—WVU31
CLOSED WVU -21.0TOTAL 54.5CCU COVERED · 55 POINTS · OVER
CCU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
WVU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADWVU -21.0
IMPLIED — CCU16.8
IMPLIED — WVU37.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT14 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 14 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CCURECORD OVERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs3.4-8.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.1
COASTAL CAROLINA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WVURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.7-8.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-9.1
WEST VIRGINIA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCOASTAL CAROLINAWEST VIRGINIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Tad HudsonQB · 65% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSamari CollierPORTAL · DELAWARE STATE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMJ MorrisQB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL90%Zeke Durham-CampbellPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah ArinzeDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSawyer Goram-WelchNT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL71%Thomas JohnsonOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick Del GrandeOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph HansonOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE67%Bryson GravesPORTAL · DELAWARE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrooks JohnsonTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCameron WrightWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB65%Xamarion GordonS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAvyonne JonesPORTAL · STEPHEN F. AUSTIN · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles MooyoungCB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION9 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB56%Dontae LunanLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLuke MurphyPORTAL · UCONN · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShane BruceLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB54%Ja'Vin SimpkinsPORTAL · UAB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen JohnRB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTrever Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASOsiris Lopez · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLDonovan Grayson · PORTAL ★3 · SAMFORDMitchell Toney · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI STATEXzavier Booker · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMA A&M2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLApisa Poumele · PORTAL ★3 · CENTRAL MICHIGANMason Barton · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEPARTIAL
WR/TETristian Gardner · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI STATETamarion LaFortune · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CONNECTICUT STATEClayton Coppock · PORTAL ★3 · KENNESAW STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBJalen Lee · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH DAKOTA STATEMason Moore · PORTAL ★3 · LEHIGHTyler Woodard · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBAzarel Juste · PORTAL ★3 · BRYANTMarcellius Pulliam · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEJordan Thompson · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN CAROLINA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBDaelen Alexander · PORTAL ★3 · RICEREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · COASTAL CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
25.314 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
18.716 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
28.518 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB484852051 OF 5 GRADED
RB3333578374 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE555545492010 OF 20 GRADED
OL53532560165 OF 16 GRADED
DL434334181611 OF 16 GRADED
LB4848457104 OF 10 GRADED
DB535357312311 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE24th24
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%53
RECRUITING CLASS#118 · 0/13 BC12
CLASS RANK TREND-43 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 33 IN / 43 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WVURICH RODRIGUEZ2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
44
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CCURYAN BEARDFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCCU OFFENSEWVU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEWEST VIRGINIA DEFENSE CCU QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WVU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS78% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7WEST VIRGINIA DEFENSE CCU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1640% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WVU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS64% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7WEST VIRGINIA DEFENSE CCU RUNNING BACKSn=717% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WVU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS63% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555724%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSESECONDARYWEST VIRGINIA DEFENSE CCU PASS CATCHERSn=2051% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WVU SECONDARYn=27 · 1 ROOM88% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WVU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+13
+9
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WVU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WVU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.8%
87.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS72.1%
50.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.6%
3.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CCU, ORANGE = WVU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE