SAT 12:30 ET|ACRISURE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP16|O/U47.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
1-2
38
10
31
14%
4
5
15.5
+525
+16.0
HOME
59
3-0
54
59
80
40%
68
64
31.5
-800
-16.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALM-OH14—PITT59
CLOSED PITT -16.0TOTAL 47.0PITT COVERED · 73 POINTS · OVER
M-OH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
PITT
M-OH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
PITT
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL47.0
SPREADPITT -16.0
IMPLIED — M-OH15.5
IMPLIED — PITT31.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
M-OHRECORD MATCHES
7-6ACTUALvs7.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.1
MIAMI (OH) won 7 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
PITTRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.2
PITTSBURGH won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIAMI (OH)PITTSBURGH2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB80%Jordan BrunsonRB · 54% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenny TracyRB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB76%Dequan FinnQB · 49% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHenry HessonQB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE69%Cole WeaverPORTAL · SYRACUSE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKam PerryPORTAL · COLORADO · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian ShaneTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB65%Jackson KuwatchDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdam TrickPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCorban HondruLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB55%Eli BlakeyDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSilas WaltersDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKoy BeasleyPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL30%Drew TerrillOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAustin UkeOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin RohrsOL · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL26%Nasir WashingtonDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh LukusaPORTAL · MISSOURI STATE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBCade Yacamelli · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINRodney Nelson · PORTAL ★3 · MONMOUTHTomarion Steward · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBDavid McComb · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASDrew Bellisari · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
WR/TEDamarion Witten · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEDevin Hyatt · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONAWilliam Pressley · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBRyan Stolarski · SIGNEE ★3Brody Sink · SIGNEE ★3Isaiah Harris · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMason Ellens · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATETommy Thies · SIGNEE ★3Easton Jointer · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLDevontae Armstrong · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEEvan Malcore · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ILLINOISDominik Kosznicki · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLMikah Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATILondon Vickroy · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIAMI (OH)
CARRIED COMPOSITE
50.881 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
55.181 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
48.668 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB404045052 OF 5 GRADED
RB4545424264 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE414145372711 OF 27 GRADED
OL363633611810 OF 18 GRADED
DL434333722211 OF 22 GRADED
LB57573370159 OF 15 GRADED
DB444464502213 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE38th38
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%34
RECRUITING CLASS#105 · 0/19 BC22
CLASS RANK TREND-23 · 3 CYCLES4
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 16 IN / 14 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 11th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
PITTPAT NARDUZZI11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
M-OHCHUCK MARTIN11TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESM-OH OFFENSEPITT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEPITTSBURGH DEFENSE M-OH QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFRONT-7PITTSBURGH DEFENSE M-OH OFFENSIVE LINEn=1839% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS35% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIAMI (OH) OFFENSEFRONT-7PITTSBURGH DEFENSE M-OH RUNNING BACKSn=658% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS37% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556579%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIAMI (OH) OFFENSESECONDARYPITTSBURGH DEFENSE M-OH PASS CATCHERSn=2763% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
PITT SECONDARYn=18 · 1 ROOM24% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−21
−7
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
M-OH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
PITT
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.2%
59.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.8%
68.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE7.4%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = M-OH, ORANGE = PITT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE