SUN 16:00 ET|HUSKY STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP42|O/U51.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
0-2
42
33
70
91%
4
50
14.0
+1300
+23.5
HOME
24
2-0
83
91
76
54%
65
82
37.5
-2800
-23.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALWSU10—WASH24
CLOSED WASH -23.5TOTAL 51.5WSU COVERED · 34 POINTS · UNDER
WSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
WASH
WSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
WASH
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADWASH -23.5
IMPLIED — WSU14.0
IMPLIED — WASH37.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
49FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT5 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 5 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
WSURECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.4
WASHINGTON STATE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WASHRECORD UNDERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs9.5-2.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.3
WASHINGTON won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWASHINGTON STATEWASHINGTON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%Zevi EckhausQB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaxon PotterQB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB93%Tucker LargeS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONColby HumphreyCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamorri ColsonCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB93%Caleb FranclLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker McKennaLB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony PalanoPORTAL · BOSTON COLLEGE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL90%Bryson LambPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaac TerrellPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBuddha PeletiDE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE60%Joshua MeredithWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdemola FaleyeTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeremiah NogaWR · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL49%AJ VaipuluOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrock DieuOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian HilbornOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB22%Angel JohnsonRB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCaden Pinnick · PORTAL ★3 · UC DAVISREFILLED
DBJalil Tucker · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON STATEJack Bal · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEJshawn Frausto-Ramos · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBNylan Brown · PORTAL ★3 · KENT STATEPARTIAL
DLLinus Zunk · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTEduwa Okundaye · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONADamarjhe Lewis · PORTAL ★3 · SMU2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TETank Hawkins · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAJack Pedersen · PORTAL ★3 · UCLADaniel Blood · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKalolo Ta'aga · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHMaximus McCree · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTONREFILLED
RBMarquez Wimberly · SIGNEE ★3CJ Toney · SIGNEE ★3Tremayne Hill · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WASHINGTON STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
22.111 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
43.660 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB676745041 OF 4 GRADED
RB50503510073 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE494954820CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL373733018CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL626244312110 OF 21 GRADED
LB4646430104 OF 10 GRADED
DB62624525198 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE42nd42
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%56
RECRUITING CLASS#128 · 0/11 BC5
CLASS RANK TREND-66 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 28 IN / 41 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WASHJEDD FISCH3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WSUKIRBY MOOREFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWSU OFFENSEWASH OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEWASHINGTON DEFENSE WSU QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 42 PLAYERS40% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE WSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=18100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-7n=26 · 2 ROOMS43% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7WASHINGTON DEFENSE WSU RUNNING BACKSn=70% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH FRONT-72 ROOMS · 26 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554828%16%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4547100%14%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSESECONDARYWASHINGTON DEFENSE WSU PASS CATCHERSn=2092% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WASH SECONDARYn=16 · 1 ROOM38% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+4
−8
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WASH
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS52.3%
47.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS50.0%
70.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WSU, ORANGE = WASH) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE