SAT 22:00 ET|UNIVERSITY STADIUM (NM)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U47.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
7
2-1
9
11
24
54%
12
13
18.0
+400
+11.0
HOME
38
2-1
19
41
39
58%
48
37
29.0
-575
-11.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALCMU7—UNM38
CLOSED UNM -11.0TOTAL 47.0UNM COVERED · 45 POINTS · UNDER
CMU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UNM
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL47.0
SPREADUNM -11.0
IMPLIED — CMU18.0
IMPLIED — UNM29.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT13 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 13 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
CMURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.2
CENTRAL MICHIGAN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNMRECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.4
NEW MEXICO won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCENTRAL MICHIGANNEW MEXICO2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB88%Jordan KwiatkowskiLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDakota CochranLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLawai'a BrownLB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB82%Joe LabasQB · 81% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB80%Kalen CarrollPORTAL · TCU · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrenden DeasfernandesDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCaleb SpannDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB68%Nahree BigginsRB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey CornistPORTAL · UCONN · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE63%DeCorion TemplePORTAL · OREGON STATE · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHenry DrydenTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyson DavisWR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL55%Michael HeldmanDL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJonathan DeckerDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeshawn HaydenPORTAL · EASTERN KENTUCKY · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL23%Apisa PoumeleOL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan BlumOL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBElijah Reynolds · SIGNEE ★3Leon Howard Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
DBJustin Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · WYOMINGTrav Moore · SIGNEE ★3Colton Benaitis · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBKobe Hendricks · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEZack Wagner · SIGNEE ★3Avin Robinson · SIGNEE ★3DaShon Febres · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLCollin Stare · SIGNEE ★3Matthew Sexton · SIGNEE ★3Isaac Hutchinson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLNic DiSanto · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN ILLINOISWyatt Graffin · SIGNEE ★3Jack Nolan · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.433 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.572 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
26.116 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB36362910062 OF 6 GRADED
RB4848372294 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE3939553319CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
OL323235021CARRIED FROM 2025 · NOTHING GRADED YET
DL44442058178 OF 17 GRADED
LB4242218106 OF 10 GRADED
DB464630282210 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE9th9
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#95 · 0/30 BC29
CLASS RANK TREND+11 · 3 CYCLES72
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 12 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNMJASON ECK2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4040
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9595
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CMUMATT DRINKALL2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6161
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCMU OFFENSEUNM OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENEW MEXICO DEFENSE CMU QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7NEW MEXICO DEFENSE CMU OFFENSIVE LINEn=21100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS15% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSEFRONT-7NEW MEXICO DEFENSE CMU RUNNING BACKSn=978% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS15% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556683%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECENTRAL MICHIGAN OFFENSESECONDARYNEW MEXICO DEFENSE CMU PASS CATCHERSn=1967% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNM SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNM
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−11
−38
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNM
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CMU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNM
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS81.3%
68.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS46.9%
48.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.3%
4.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CMU, ORANGE = UNM) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE