SAT 15:45 ET|CHAPMAN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/U57.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
2-1
53
22
50
0%
99
77
35.5
-550
-13.5
HOME
24
3-0
39
16
37
41%
57
26
22.0
+410
+13.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALOKST10—TLSA24
CLOSED OKST -13.5TOTAL 57.5TLSA COVERED · 34 POINTS · UNDER
OKST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TLSA
OKST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TLSA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL57.5
SPREADOKST -13.5
IMPLIED — OKST35.5
IMPLIED — TLSA22.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
42FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT30 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 30 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
OKSTRECORD MATCHES
1-11ACTUALvs1.4-10.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-19.2
OKLAHOMA STATE won 1 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 1.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TLSARECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.8
TULSA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROKLAHOMA STATETULSA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Zane FloresQB · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB100%Rodney Fields Jr.PORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 48% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrent HowlandRB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSesi VailahiPORTAL · UTAH STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE100%Terrill DavisWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin FreemanPORTAL · BAYLOR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShamar RigbyWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION12 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB93%Kenneth HarrisCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParker RobertsonS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam SmithCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL91%Bob SchickOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNuku MafiPORTAL · PURDUE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrant SeagrenOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB85%Bryan McCoy Jr.LB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon RawlsLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIke EsonwunePORTAL · UAB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL61%Wendell GregoryPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAden KelleyDT · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArmstrong NnodimPORTAL · PENN STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDrew Mestemaker · PORTAL ★5 · NORTH TEXASREFILLED
RBCaleb Hawkins · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH TEXASTre Page III · PORTAL ★3 · TARLETON STATEKD Jones · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEWyatt Young · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH TEXASJustin Bowick · PORTAL ★4 · ILLINOISChris Barnes · PORTAL ★4 · WAKE FOREST3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBTrudell Berry · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTQuinton Hammonds · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASBraeden Presley · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLAshton Lepo · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEBraydon Nelson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASKole Seaton · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBIsaiah Chisom · PORTAL ★3 · UCLAPARTIAL
DLJerry Lawson · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEBraylon Rigsby · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHJames Williams · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OKLAHOMA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
14.74 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
18.69 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4343100041 OF 4 GRADED
RB474782074 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE3535820218 OF 21 GRADED
OL4848420207 OF 20 GRADED
DL545466352314 OF 23 GRADED
LB4040494114 OF 11 GRADED
DB434356102210 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE53rd53
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%37
RECRUITING CLASS#69 · 0/18 BC49
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+4 · 55 IN / 65 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TLSATRE LAMB2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3333
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OKSTERIC MORRISFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9090
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOKST OFFENSETLSA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETULSA DEFENSE OKST QUARTERBACKSn=4100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TULSA DEFENSE OKST OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS47% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TULSA DEFENSE OKST RUNNING BACKSn=7100% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS45% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554734%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOKLAHOMA STATE OFFENSESECONDARYTULSA DEFENSE OKST PASS CATCHERSn=21100% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TLSA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM32% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OKST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−8
−4
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OKST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OKST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TLSA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.7%
57.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.5%
47.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.1%
3.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OKST, ORANGE = TLSA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE