SAT 15:30 ET|NIPPERT STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U51.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
15
1-1
49
59
35
16%
42
80
22.3
+225
+7.0
HOME
34
2-0
45
98
52
8%
73
76
29.3
-278
-7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALBC15—CIN34
CLOSED CIN -7.0TOTAL 51.5CIN COVERED · 49 POINTS · UNDER
BC
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CIN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADCIN -7.0
IMPLIED — BC22.3
IMPLIED — CIN29.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
69FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT24 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 24 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
BCRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.3-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
BOSTON COLLEGE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CINRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.9
CINCINNATI won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOSTON COLLEGECINCINNATI2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Dylan LonerganPORTAL · RUTGERS · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrayson JamesQB · 34% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShaker ReisigQB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB92%Turbo RichardPORTAL · INDIANA · 59% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan McDonaldRB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB81%Owen McGowanLB · 57% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce SteelePORTAL · TROY · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJason Hewlett Jr.LB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL73%Logan TaylorDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin ClineOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEryx DaughertyOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE66%Jeremiah FranklinTE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLewis BondDRAFTED · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReed HarrisPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL59%Sedarius McConnellDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEdwin KolengePORTAL · VANDERBILT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuintayvious HutchinsDRAFTED · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB24%Omar ThorntonPORTAL · MIAMI · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBGrayson Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASFemi Babalola · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBSedric Addison · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBKris Jones · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIASteve Klein · SIGNEE ★3Mekhi Volcy · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLTrevon Humphrey · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA CENTRALKristian Phillips · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEMarcelino Antunes Jr. · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEReed Swanson · PORTAL ★3 · COLGATELandon Wright · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEKelvin Brown · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLKJ Sampson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEMason Leak · SIGNEE ★4Demeterius Thompson · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBChandler Jordan · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATEJordan Rodriguez · SIGNEE ★3DJ Biggins · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOSTON COLLEGE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
44.465 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
29.831 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.986 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB363645061 OF 6 GRADED
RB4949485782 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE515159662411 OF 24 GRADED
OL48485952198 OF 19 GRADED
DL393957452312 OF 23 GRADED
LB21213020114 OF 11 GRADED
DB494959942513 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE49th49
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%34
RECRUITING CLASS#53 · 1/24 BC61
CLASS RANK TREND+42 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 26 IN / 30 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CINSCOTT SATTERFIELD4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BCBILL O'BRIEN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5757
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBC OFFENSECIN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECINCINNATI DEFENSE BC QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS76% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSEFRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE BC OFFENSIVE LINEn=1948% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS50% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSEFRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE BC RUNNING BACKSn=843% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS49% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554042%5%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSESECONDARYCINCINNATI DEFENSE BC PASS CATCHERSn=2434% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM97% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+17
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.3%
67.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS68.8%
37.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
7.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BC, ORANGE = CIN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE