SCOUTTEAM
● LIVE|2026 SEASON|FBS PERCENTILES|
HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 1›ORST @ HOU›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SMU @ FSU71
UNT @ IU69
BC @ CIN68
CLEM @ LSU68
LIB @ JMU66
BOIS @ ORE66
MOST @ TA&M64
UNLV @ HAW64
BALL @ OSU63
MIA @ STAN62
BAY @ AUB61
MRSH @ PSU61
SJSU @ EMU60
UTEP @ OU60
M-OH @ PITT60
WMU @ MICH60
LOU @ MISS60
WIS @ ND60
FIU @ USF59
COLO @ GT58
NIU @ IOWA58
WYO @ CSU58
FAU @ FLA58
WSU @ WASH58
OHIO @ NEB57
ULM @ MSST57
UCLA @ CAL57
TULN @ DUKE56
TOL @ MSU55
AKR @ WAKE54
FRES @ USC54
ECU @ ALA53
UAB @ ILL52
KENT @ SC51
TXST @ TEX51
ARST @ MEM50
WKU @ NEV50
MASS @ RUTG49
ORST @ HOU46
OKST @ TLSA44
CMU @ UNM43
CCU @ WVU35
SHSU @ TROY33
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
OREGON STATE
HOUSTON
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 12:00 ET|TDECU STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/U50.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
78FPI
ORSTPACOREGON STATE
20
1-2
45
54
45
58%
81
47
15.0
+725
+20.5
HOME
#22AP
31FPI
HOUB12HOUSTON
33
2-1
59
44
87
81%
75
66
35.5
-1300
-20.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALORST20—HOU33
CLOSED HOU -20.5TOTAL 50.5ORST COVERED · 53 POINTS · OVER
ORST
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
HOU
20
POINTS
33
402
TOTAL YARDS
533
376 (29-48)
PASSING
305 (20-31)
26 (25)
RUSHING
228 (41)
20
FIRST DOWNS
24
4-15
THIRD DOWN
7-13
2-5
FOURTH DOWN
1-1
29:10
TIME OF POSS.
30:50
5-42
PENALTIES
10-65
0
TURNOVERS
2
1
SACKS
4
2
QB HURRIES
8
ORST
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
HOU
0.185
SEASON 0.304
EPA / PLAY
0.417
SEASON 0.500
41.1%
SEASON 41.1%
SUCCESS RATE
48.6%
SEASON 58.5%
9.6%
SEASON 16.4%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
21.4%
SEASON 19.5%
5.51
SEASON 6.66
YARDS / PLAY
7.51
SEASON 7.62
0.417
SEASON 0.254
EPA ALLOWED
0.185
SEASON 0.131
48.6%
SEASON 44.4%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
41.1%
SEASON 37.8%
21.4%
SEASON 15.1%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
9.6%
SEASON 12.8%
15.4%
SEASON 13.6%
STUFF RATE
4.8%
SEASON 22.2%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADHOU -20.5
IMPLIED — ORST15.0
IMPLIED — HOU35.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
48FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
33 / 43
BY ENVIRONMENT
24 / 43
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
ORST PACE25.6s
81
HOU PACE26.1s
75
SHARED PACE25.8s
78
PLAY VOLUME139
78
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
ORST79CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
98
PROE
57
TEMPO
81
EXPLOSIVE98p
98
PROE57p
57
TEMPO81p
81
HOU38CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
23
PROE
17
TEMPO
75
EXPLOSIVE23p
23
PROE17p
17
TEMPO75p
75
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
ORSTRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.9-9.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.3
OREGON STATE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
HOURECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs7.8-4.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.5
HOUSTON won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROREGON STATEHOUSTON2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB83%Anthony HankersonRB · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSalahadin AllahRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE71%Trent WalkerPORTAL · HOUSTON · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce CaufieldTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid Wells Jr.PORTAL · TULSA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL68%Van WellsC · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan BergerOL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler MoranoOL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB55%Dexter FosterPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNikko TaylorLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShamar MeiklePORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL51%Thomas CollinsPORTAL · UCF · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKai WallinPORTAL · SAN DIEGO STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTahjae MullixPORTAL · UCONN · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB50%Skyler ThomasDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalil TuckerPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKobe SingletonDB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB38%Gabarri JohnsonPORTAL · SAMFORD · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTristan Ti'aPORTAL · AUBURN · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBAJ Newberry · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTTre Garrison · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEAeryn Hampton · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMAAdonis McDaniel · PORTAL ★3 · MERCEREric Olsen · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH TECH3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKwan Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN ILLINOISBroderick Shull · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNCarter Guillaume · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJa’Bari Odoemenem · PORTAL ★3 · DUQUESNEDylan Layne · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHOJeremiah Brown · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLDaniel Matagi · PORTAL ★3 · PORTLAND STATEIsh Findlayter · PORTAL ★3 · DUQUESNEAdel Dorr · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBIsaiah Houi · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN ILLINOISKai Wheaton · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBBraden Atkinson · PORTAL ★3 · MERCERBrady Jones · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN MICHIGANINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OREGON STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.855 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
32.540 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
47.966 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB616164051 OF 5 GRADED
RB4444544874 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE53534316218 OF 21 GRADED
OL60604173185 OF 18 GRADED
DL48485953125 OF 12 GRADED
LB434349542011 OF 20 GRADED
DB505057422012 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE45th45
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%39
RECRUITING CLASS#100 · 0/12 BC26
CLASS RANK TREND-13 · 3 CYCLES24
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 20 IN / 35 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
HOUWILLIE FRITZ3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1818
PACE
3636
PASS RATE
1313
EXPLOSIVENESS
2626
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HAVOC
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ORSTJAMARCUS SHEPHARDFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESORST OFFENSEHOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOREGON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
42OF 138
TAL
64
PERF
61
RET
0
NATIONAL
50OF 136
RET
18
FULL DEFENSEHOUSTON DEFENSE
ORST QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
BRADEN ATKINSONQBPORTAL · MERCER
502ND YR4064★3+16
MAALIK MURPHYQBRET
474TH YR—97★4-18 2025
BRADY JONESQBPORTAL · WESTERN MICHIGAN
424TH YR—28★3-54 2025
ISAIAH ARRIAZAQBTRUE FR
351ST YR——★3—
DANNY LEARYQBTRUE FR
301ST YR——UNR—
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS35% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
5063%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
4069%0%
SECONDARYDB
5765%12%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOREGON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
42OF 138
TAL
41
PERF
60
RET
73
DL
71OF 138
DL RET
63
LB
98OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE
ORST OFFENSIVE LINEn=1827% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
TYLER VOLTINOLRET
504TH YR——UNR+14 2025
TEKO SHOATSOLPORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN
493RD YR—45★3—
WILL LARKINSOLRET
493RD YR—45★3—
JACOB ANDERSONOLRET
463RD YR——UNR—
CARTER GUILLAUMEOLPORTAL · LOUISVILLE
452ND YR—45★3—
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS35% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JADEN YATESLBPORTAL · OLE MISS
614TH YR9564★3+10
ASHTON PORTERDLPORTAL · OREGON
564TH YR5885★3+8
LATREVEON MCCUTCHINLBRET
534TH YR7264★3+15
TRAVIS BUHAKEDLRET
522ND YR2885★4—
DARIUS WASHINGTONDLRET
502ND YR—67★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOREGON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
108OF 138
TAL
54
PERF
44
RET
48
DL
71OF 138
DL RET
63
LB
98OF 138
LB RET
69
FRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE
ORST RUNNING BACKSn=752% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
AJ NEWBERRYRBPORTAL · VANDERBILT
554TH YR6045★3-2
JAKE REICHLERBRET
514TH YR—17★3+38 2025
KOURDEY GLASSRBRET
501ST YR2066★3—
CORNELL HATCHER JR.RBRET
472ND YR5048★3+8
TRE GARRISONRBTRUE FR
441ST YR5—★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS35% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555063%13%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.454069%0%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOREGON STATE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
53OF 138
TAL
43
PERF
53
RET
16
DB
41OF 138
DB RET
65
SECONDARYHOUSTON DEFENSE
ORST PASS CATCHERSn=2184% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DECORION TEMPLETEPORTAL · CENTRAL MICHIGAN
644TH YR8727★3-28
JESSE LEGREEWRTRUE FR
521ST YR——UNR—
CYNAI THOMASWRTRUE FR
521ST YR——UNR—
JACKSON BOWERSTERET
523RD YR—84★4—
GABE MILBOURNTERET
514TH YR——UNR+16 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM35% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
WILL JAMESDBRET
534TH YR9446★3-15
JOHNSLEY BARBASDBRET
523RD YR3158★3—
JD RHYMDBRET
494TH YR5893★4-5
JORDAN ALLENDBRET
484TH YR8945★3+13
PARIS MELVIN JR.DBTRUE FR
471ST YR—91★4—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ORST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
41.3
49.4
— OFFENSE
54.4
54.5
— DEFENSE
28.2
44.2
SP+ OVERALL
-4.6
11.6
FPI
-2.2
10.8
ELO
1259
1518
TALENT
636
696
PRODUCTION
36
73
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+27
−20
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.09
0.11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ORST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
OFF EFFICIENCY
50
42
DEF EFFICIENCY
71
54
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
1
43
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
4
95
FINISHING DRIVES
3
40
FIELD POSITION
66
24
TURNOVER MARGIN
5
79
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ORST
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
PASS RATE
66.8%
43.5%
PACE
25.6s
26.1s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
44.9%
60.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
89.0%
55.3%
PLAYS / GAME
70.3
69.0
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
1.9%
3.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ORST, ORANGE = HOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE