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HOME›SLATE›2026›WEEK 1›TULN @ DUKE›OVERVIEWMARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT
SITE
F1SLATEF2LEADERSF3TEAMSF4PORTALF5RECRUIT
THIS WEEK
SMU @ FSU71
UNT @ IU69
BC @ CIN68
CLEM @ LSU68
LIB @ JMU66
BOIS @ ORE66
MOST @ TA&M64
UNLV @ HAW64
BALL @ OSU63
MIA @ STAN62
BAY @ AUB61
MRSH @ PSU61
SJSU @ EMU60
UTEP @ OU60
M-OH @ PITT60
WMU @ MICH60
LOU @ MISS60
WIS @ ND60
FIU @ USF59
COLO @ GT58
NIU @ IOWA58
WYO @ CSU58
FAU @ FLA58
WSU @ WASH58
OHIO @ NEB57
ULM @ MSST57
UCLA @ CAL57
TULN @ DUKE56
TOL @ MSU55
AKR @ WAKE54
FRES @ USC54
ECU @ ALA53
UAB @ ILL52
KENT @ SC51
TXST @ TEX51
ARST @ MEM50
WKU @ NEV50
MASS @ RUTG49
ORST @ HOU46
OKST @ TLSA44
CMU @ UNM43
CCU @ WVU35
SHSU @ TROY33
FIDELITY
MEASURED
DERIVED
≈ ESTIMATED
DOT MARKS
TULANE
DUKE
OVERVIEWPRESEASON PROFILE
MATCHUPHEAD TO HEAD
TEAMROOMS & PLAYERS
VINTAGE2025 FINAL
SAT 15:30 ET|WALLACE WADE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U51.5COLLISION
75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
—AP
71FPI
TULNAACTULANE
3
1-1
50
31
36
21%
4
35
21.0
+300
+9.5
HOME
—AP
40FPI
DUKEACCDUKE
17
2-0
50
86
15
17%
42
61
30.5
-380
-9.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTULN3—DUKE17
CLOSED DUKE -9.5TOTAL 51.5DUKE COVERED · 20 POINTS · UNDER
TULN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
DUKE
3
POINTS
17
258
TOTAL YARDS
381
204 (17-30)
PASSING
131 (13-28)
54 (26)
RUSHING
250 (49)
10
FIRST DOWNS
20
3-14
THIRD DOWN
8-18
0-2
FOURTH DOWN
1-4
23:25
TIME OF POSS.
36:35
15-104
PENALTIES
8-53
1
TURNOVERS
1
0
SACKS
3
2
QB HURRIES
4
TULN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
DUKE
0.004
SEASON 0.194
EPA / PLAY
0.064
SEASON 0.217
28.3%
SEASON 33.0%
SUCCESS RATE
29.7%
SEASON 37.2%
7.5%
SEASON 11.7%
EXPLOSIVE RATE
13.5%
SEASON 16.3%
4.15
SEASON 6.31
YARDS / PLAY
5.05
SEASON 5.81
0.064
SEASON 0.172
EPA ALLOWED
0.004
SEASON 0.085
29.7%
SEASON 38.4%
SUCCESS ALLOWED
28.3%
SEASON 40.8%
13.5%
SEASON 17.1%
EXPLOSIVE ALLOWED
7.5%
SEASON 7.5%
17.0%
SEASON 15.1%
STUFF RATE
13.6%
SEASON 9.3%
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL51.5
SPREADDUKE -9.5
IMPLIED — TULN21.0
IMPLIED — DUKE30.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
62FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
BY MARKET TOTAL
27 / 43
BY ENVIRONMENT
7 / 43
DISAGREEMENT20 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 20 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
TULN PACE35.0s
4
DUKE PACE27.9s
42
SHARED PACE31.4s
23
PLAY VOLUME116
23
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
TULN46CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
94
PROE
40
TEMPO
4
EXPLOSIVE94p
94
PROE40p
40
TEMPO4p
4
DUKE60CEILING
EXPLOSIVE
55
PROE
82
TEMPO
42
EXPLOSIVE55p
55
PROE82p
82
TEMPO42p
42
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
TULNRECORD OVERSTATES
11-2ACTUALvs8.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+2.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.5
TULANE won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
DUKERECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs7.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
DUKE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 7.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTULANEDUKE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jake RetzlaffQB · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrendan SullivanQB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE79%Johnny PascuzziTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustyn ReidTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShazz PrestonPORTAL · INDIANA · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL73%Jack HollifieldOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShadre HurstOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerrick GrahamOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB71%Javin GordonPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArnold Barnes IIIPORTAL · IOWA STATE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZuberi MobleyPORTAL · BETHUNE-COOKMAN · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL54%Santana HopperPORTAL · COLORADO · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan NormanPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre'von McAlpineDT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB48%Sam HowardLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHarvey Dyson IIIPORTAL · NC STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMo WestmorelandLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB35%Javion WhitePORTAL · HOUSTON · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBailey DespanieS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah WadsworthDB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTrace Johnson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEGabe Daniels · PORTAL ★3 · SYRACUSEGary Hadley Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Keyshaun Coleman · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLGavin Marks · PORTAL ★3 · MERCERTylan George · SIGNEE ★4Aiden Martin · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBJaylin Lucas · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEDJ Dugar Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEJake Randle · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJordyn Crites · SIGNEE ★4AJ Westfield · SIGNEE ★3Cayden Dees · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBChan Lumpkin · SIGNEE ★3Dylan Brasher · SIGNEE ★3Zach Dresch · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJustin Agu · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEKajuan Banks · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDAOrion Saunders · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TULANE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.347 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
13.69 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.985 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB515147072 OF 7 GRADED
RB4747603383 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE595951302510 OF 25 GRADED
OL53535043209 OF 20 GRADED
DL45455865209 OF 20 GRADED
LB50503584104 OF 10 GRADED
DB434340662111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE50th50
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%35
RECRUITING CLASS#64 · 2/20 BC53
CLASS RANK TREND-1 · 3 CYCLES48
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 20 IN / 27 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
DUKEMANNY DIAZ3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
PACE
4343
PASS RATE
8383
EXPLOSIVENESS
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HAVOC
9595
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TULNWILL HALLFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1717
PACE
2727
PASS RATE
3636
EXPLOSIVENESS
7575
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2828
HAVOC
6464
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTULN OFFENSEDUKE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTED
COLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTULANE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
81OF 138
TAL
47
PERF
51
RET
0
NATIONAL
93OF 136
RET
51
FULL DEFENSEDUKE DEFENSE
TULN QUARTERBACKSn=7100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ZEON CHRISS-GREMILLIONQBPORTAL · HOUSTON
674TH YR7254★3+6
KADIN SEMONZAQBRET
433RD YR8245★3-1
TRACE JOHNSONQBTRUE FR
351ST YR—50★3—
JAY BEAMONQBRET
351ST YR—50★3—
CADE SCOTTQBRET
351ST YR—62★3—
SHOW ALL 7
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 45 PLAYERS39% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
6690%24%
LINEBACKERSLB
53100%9%
SECONDARYDB
4834%0%
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTULANE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
69OF 138
TAL
50
PERF
53
RET
43
DL
16OF 138
DL RET
90
LB
50OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE
TULN OFFENSIVE LINEn=2057% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
GRESHAM PERRYOLRET
491ST YR—47★3—
GAVIN MARKSOLPORTAL · MERCER
492ND YR—45★3—
JAXON DUCREOLRET
492ND YR——UNR—
DOMINIC STEWARDOLRET
492ND YR—63★3—
REESE BAKEROLRET
482ND YR—60★3-34 2025
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS6% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
LUKE MERGOTTLBRET
573RD YR8653★3-5
TYSHON REEDDERET
553RD YR5760★3+3
PRESTON WATSONDTRET
543RD YR7473★3-19
KOBE SMITHDERET
542ND YR4374★3—
NICK MORRIS JR.LBRET
514TH YR7863★3-8
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTULANE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
98OF 138
TAL
60
PERF
47
RET
33
DL
16OF 138
DL RET
90
LB
50OF 138
LB RET
100
FRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE
TULN RUNNING BACKSn=867% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
JOHNNIE DANIELSRBPORTAL · MISSISSIPPI STATE
614TH YR71—★3+3
MAURICE TURNERRBRET
494TH YR8245★3-19
JAYLIN LUCASRBPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE
484TH YR7778★3+6
DJ DUGARRBTRUE FR
371ST YR—64★3—
JAMAURI MCCLURERBRET
552ND YR—60★3+31 2025
SHOW ALL 8
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS6% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556690%24%
LINEBACKERSLB
0.4553100%9%
EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETULANE OFFENSE
NATIONAL
36OF 138
TAL
51
PERF
59
RET
30
DB
96OF 138
DB RET
34
SECONDARYDUKE DEFENSE
TULN PASS CATCHERSn=2570% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
ANTHONY BROWN-STEPHENSWRRET
544TH YR8584★3-2
TY THOMPSONTERET
514TH YR—45★3—
BREDELL RICHARDSONWRPORTAL · UCF
512ND YR328★3—
GARRETT MMAHATWRRET
504TH YR36—UNR—
ZYCARL LEWIS JR.WRRET
502ND YR5882★3+23
SHOW TOP 10
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM66% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
DYLAN FLOWERSCBPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY
784TH YR6278★3-29
DASHAWN STONESRET
593RD YR9560★3-4
EVAN SMITHCBPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN
524TH YR6264★3-33
ANDREW PELLICCIOTTASRET
472ND YR5560★3-10
KYON LOUDCBPORTAL · MONTANA
462ND YR1564★3—
SHOW TOP 10
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
SCOUT TEAM GRADE
35.4
57.9
— OFFENSE
37.5
61.6
— DEFENSE
33.2
54.1
SP+ OVERALL
-6.0
6.9
FPI
-0.8
6.6
ELO
1528
1613
TALENT
665
668
PRODUCTION
37
68
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾
+9
−15
BLUE CHIP RATIO
0.07
0.09
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
OFF EFFICIENCY
69
78
DEF EFFICIENCY
19
31
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS
31
81
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS
79
16
FINISHING DRIVES
49
83
FIELD POSITION
1
15
TURNOVER MARGIN
83
87
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TULN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
PASS RATE
51.5%
37.2%
PACE
35.0s
27.9s
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS
59.4%
68.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS
69.2%
47.7%
PLAYS / GAME
51.5
64.5
GARBAGE TIME SHARE
0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TULN, ORANGE = DUKE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE