SAT 22:30 ET|CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/U53.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
45
3-0
82
56
55
57%
51
58
28.0
-130
-2.5
HOME
24
2-1
77
43
66
58%
86
64
25.5
+110
+2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALUCLA45—CAL24
CLOSED UCLA -2.5TOTAL 53.5UCLA COVERED · 69 POINTS · OVER
UCLA
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
CAL
UCLA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CAL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=43
MARKET
TOTAL53.5
SPREADUCLA -2.5
IMPLIED — UCLA28.0
IMPLIED — CAL25.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
53FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 43-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
UCLARECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.3-9.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-15.3
UCLA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CALRECORD OVERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.7
CALIFORNIA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUCLACALIFORNIA2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL91%Gary Smith IIIDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony Jones Jr.PORTAL · NEBRASKA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeanu WilliamsPORTAL · PENN STATE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE82%Kwazi GilmerPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONHudson HabermehlTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTitus Mokiao-AtimalalaWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB62%JonJon VaughnsLB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah ChisomPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL52%Garrett DiGiorgioOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReuben UnijeOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCourtland FordOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB44%Jalen BergerRB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAnthony Frias IIRB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB42%Key LawrenceDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndre Jordan Jr.PORTAL · AUBURN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKanye ClarkPORTAL · FLORIDA · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB8%Luke DuncanPORTAL · NEVADA · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLSahir West · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONAiden Gobaira · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONAmier Washington · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECH2 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
WR/TEAidan Mizell · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAJosh Phifer · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONBrian Rowe Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBSammy Omosigho · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMAMalaki Soliai-Tui · SIGNEE ★3Matthew Muasau · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLRiley Robell · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONSean Na'a · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEQuinn Buckey · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBWayne Knight · PORTAL ★3 · JAMES MADISONJayden Fox · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBTao Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHLogan Hirou · SIGNEE ★3CJ Lavender · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBDJ Bordeaux · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UCLA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
42.960 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
52.778 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.742 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB666610010051 OF 5 GRADED
RB5757755763 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE373768142310 OF 23 GRADED
OL55556024236 OF 23 GRADED
DL292973191710 OF 17 GRADED
LB35358059156 OF 15 GRADED
DB585866372313 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE82nd82
BLUE-CHIP RATIO24%74
RECRUITING CLASS#62 · 2/18 BC54
CLASS RANK TREND+28 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 42 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CALTOSH LUPOIFIRST SEASONNO CAREER RECORD
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UCLABOB CHESNEYFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3131
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5454
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUCLA OFFENSECAL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUCLA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECALIFORNIA DEFENSE UCLA QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS68% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUCLA OFFENSEFRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE UCLA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2376% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS71% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUCLA OFFENSEFRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE UCLA RUNNING BACKSn=643% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS71% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553125%13%LINEBACKERSLB
0.453633%25%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUCLA OFFENSESECONDARYCALIFORNIA DEFENSE UCLA PASS CATCHERSn=2386% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM65% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+13
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS68.3%
54.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS66.7%
80.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UCLA, ORANGE = CAL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE