FRI 19:30 ET|ALUMNI STADIUM (CHESTNUT HILL, MA)NONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP17|O/U53.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
0-3
66
88
8
44%
37
86
25.3
+124
+3.0
HOME
28
2-1
49
59
35
16%
31
83
28.3
-148
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2026CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALRUTG21—BC28
CLOSED BC -3.0TOTAL 53.5BC COVERED · 49 POINTS · UNDER
RUTG
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BC
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 2 FIELD n=49
MARKET
TOTAL53.5
SPREADBC -3.0
IMPLIED — RUTG25.3
IMPLIED — BC28.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
67FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT16 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 16 positions on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right. The market board is 49 games because -2 carry no published total, so the two are not the same field.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2025 · FULL SEASON
2025 SEASONCARRIED FORWARD · 2026 HAS NO GAMES YET
RUTGRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.3-6.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.2
RUTGERS won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BCRECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.3-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.3
BOSTON COLLEGE won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERRUTGERSBOSTON COLLEGE2026 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%Athan KaliakmanisDRAFTED · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB77%Jett EladDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCam MillerDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacobie HendersonPORTAL · VIRGINIA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL71%Eric O'NeillDL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBradley WeaverDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan ThompsonDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE69%DT SheffieldWR · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenny Fletcher Jr.TE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIan StrongPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL56%Bryan FelterOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGus ZilinskasOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaj WhiteOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB54%Dariel DjabomeLB · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam RobinsonPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB10%CJ Campbell Jr.PORTAL · DUKE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBXavier Stearn · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBDevonte Anderson · SIGNEE ★4Messiah Tilson · SIGNEE ★4Brandon Murray · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DLRinaldo Callaway III · SIGNEE ★4Reece Beck · SIGNEE ★3Jermaine Polk · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDyzier Carter · SIGNEE ★4Elias Coke · SIGNEE ★3DJ Howerton · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
OLJared Smith · SIGNEE ★3Logan Anthony · SIGNEE ★3James Cocozzo · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
LBJoey Kopec · SIGNEE ★3Tanner Raymond · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBAiden Gibson · SIGNEE ★4Michael Dukes III · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · RUTGERS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
32.429 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
36.347 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
29.419 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB3030692352 OF 5 GRADED
RB7171656782 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE51517464238 OF 23 GRADED
OL535351100266 OF 26 GRADED
DL454551352112 OF 21 GRADED
LB32327053142 OF 14 GRADED
DB46466156298 OF 29 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE66th66
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%63
RECRUITING CLASS#36 · 6/26 BC74
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 15 IN / 15 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BCBILL O'BRIEN3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5757
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
RUTGGREG SCHIANO7TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2020
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6161
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESRUTG OFFENSEBC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBRUTGERS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE RUTG QUARTERBACKSn=577% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS32% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLRUTGERS OFFENSEFRONT-7BOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE RUTG OFFENSIVE LINEn=260% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS65% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBRUTGERS OFFENSEFRONT-7BOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE RUTG RUNNING BACKSn=833% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS66% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553945%22%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TERUTGERS OFFENSESECONDARYBOSTON COLLEGE DEFENSE RUTG PASS CATCHERSn=2336% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BC SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM6% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+4
+17
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORS2025 · NATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
RUTG
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BC
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.5%
66.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS73.2%
71.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = RUTG, ORANGE = BC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE